Seinajoen JK - Mariehamn prediction 18 September 2026

Seinajoen JK vs Mariehamn prediction for the Veikkausliiga match on Sep 18, 2026, at 15:00. Based on the latest odds, form, and head-to-head stats, Seinajoen JK enters as the favorite, but Mariehamn's recent surge makes this a tighter contest than the table suggests. Our win probability model gives Seinajoen JK a 45% chance, the draw 25%, and Mariehamn a 30% chance.

Team Form

Seinajoen JK's recent form is a concern. Their last five matches have yielded three draws and two losses (D, D, D, L, L). They were held to 1-1 at Jaro, 0-0 at TPS Turku, and 0-0 at AC Oulu, before losing 1-2 at home to Lahti and 0-2 away to Mariehamn. The attack has managed just one goal in those five games, while the defense has been breached five times.

Mariehamn, on the other hand, have won four of their last five (W, L, W, W, W). They beat TPS Turku 1-0 at home, lost 1-2 at Lahti, then defeated Jaro 2-0, KuPS 4-2 away, and Seinajoen JK 2-0 at home. That's 10 goals scored in five matches, with only three conceded, showing a sharp upturn in form.

Head-to-Head Record

In 30 previous meetings, Seinajoen JK have won 10, Mariehamn 15, and 5 ended in draws. The last five encounters tell a mixed story: Mariehamn won the most recent clash 2-0 on Aug 15, 2026, but Seinajoen JK won the three before that (3-0 home, 4-1 home, 2-1 away) and also won 3-2 at home in August 2023. So while Seinajoen JK have dominated recent H2Hs, Mariehamn's latest victory could signal a shift.

League Table Positions

Seinajoen JK sit 10th in the Veikkausliiga with 19 points from 22 matches (4 wins, 7 draws, 11 losses). They have scored 25 and conceded 33. Mariehamn are 12th with 14 points (3 wins, 5 draws, 14 losses), scoring 17 and conceding 43. Both teams are in the bottom three, but Seinajoen JK hold a five-point cushion. Home and away splits are not available for these sides in the top eight, indicating poor performances in both contexts.

Win Probability: Seinajoen JK or Mariehamn?

We calculate the chances as follows: Seinajoen JK win – 45%, draw – 25%, Mariehamn win – 30%. The odds imply a 55% home win probability, but we have adjusted downward due to Seinajoen JK's five-match winless run and Mariehamn's four wins in five, including a direct victory over Seinajoen JK. The head-to-head record still favors the home side historically, but current momentum belongs to the visitors. Therefore, while Seinajoen JK remain the most likely winner, the value may lie with Mariehamn or the draw.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' 1X2 odds for this match: home win 1.76, draw 4.10, away win 4.40 (first listed bookmaker). These prices reflect Seinajoen JK as clear favorites. However, given the contrasting form, the draw and away win odds appear generous. Our prediction: based on the stats, Seinajoen JK have the edge on paper, but Mariehamn's confidence and recent results make them capable of taking at least a point. A low-scoring draw or a narrow away win cannot be ruled out.