Maritimo - Santa Clara prediction 1 November 2026

Maritimo vs Santa Clara prediction for the Primeira Liga clash on Nov 1, 2026, at Estádio dos Barreiros. Based on the latest form, league standings, and head-to-head record, Santa Clara enters this match as the favorite with a 45% win probability, while Maritimo has a 25% chance and the draw is at 30%.

Team Form

Maritimo's recent form is a concern. In their last five matches across all competitions, they have recorded one win, one draw, and three losses (L-W-L-D-L). The most recent result was a heavy 5-0 away defeat to Vitoria Guimaraes on Oct 23. Their only victory came in the Cup against lower-league Alcochetense (2-1). In the Primeira Liga, they lost 1-2 at home to FC Porto and suffered a 3-1 loss at Moreirense. The sole positive was a 1-1 draw at Gil Vicente.

Santa Clara, on the other hand, is unbeaten in their last five outings (D-W-D-W-W). They drew 2-2 at Mafra in the Cup, but in the league they have been impressive: a 1-0 away win at Casa Pia, a 0-0 home draw with Braga, a 2-1 win at Arouca, and a dominant 4-0 home victory over Rio Ave. This run shows defensive solidity and consistent scoring.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record slightly favors Maritimo, who have won 8 of the 17 meetings, with Santa Clara winning 5 and 4 draws. However, recent history tells a different story. In the last three encounters, Santa Clara won twice (2-1 in Dec 2023 and 2-1 in Sep 2022), while Maritimo's only win was a 3-1 home victory in Feb 2023. The trend suggests Santa Clara has had the upper hand in recent Primeira Liga matchups.

League Table Positions

The league standings highlight a significant gap between the two sides. Santa Clara sits 4th in the Primeira Liga with 18 points from 8 matches, remaining unbeaten (5 wins, 3 draws) and boasting the second-best away record in the division (3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses). Maritimo, by contrast, is not even in the top 12 of the table, indicating a struggle near the bottom. Their home form is not among the top eight, and they have managed only one point from their last four league games.

Win Probability: Maritimo or Santa Clara?

After analyzing all available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Maritimo 25%, Draw 30%, Santa Clara 45%. The odds from bookmakers consistently price Santa Clara as the favorite, with implied probabilities around 40-45% when normalized. Santa Clara's unbeaten league run, strong away form (10 points from 4 away games), and Maritimo's poor recent results (4 losses in 5) heavily tilt the scales. While Maritimo has home advantage, their only home league match in the last five was a loss to Porto, so that factor is diminished. Therefore, Santa Clara is the more likely winner, but a draw remains a plausible outcome given Santa Clara's two draws in their last five.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varying odds for this fixture. The best available odds for a Maritimo win are around 3.35, for a draw as low as 1.95, and for a Santa Clara win as low as 2.25. The market clearly sees Santa Clara as the favorite, with the draw also considered a strong possibility. Based on the stats, our Maritimo vs Santa Clara prediction is a Santa Clara victory. The value may lie in backing Santa Clara to win, but cautious bettors might consider the draw no bet market. Santa Clara's defensive record (only 4 goals conceded in 8 league games) makes them a reliable pick.