UPDF FC - Maroons prediction 17 September 2026
UPDF FC
Maroons
Kampala Capital City AuthorityUPDF FCUPDF FCBul FCExpress FCUPDF FCUPDF FCMaroonsUganda PoliceUPDF FCEntebbeUPDF FCSC VillaUPDF FCUPDF FCCalvary FCUPDF FCKampala Capital City AuthorityEntebbeUPDF FCUganda PoliceUPDF FCUPDF FCURA FCBul FCUPDF FCUPDF FCExpress FCUPDF FCMbarara City FCMaroonsKataka FCVipers SCMaroonsMaroonsLugazi MunicipalUPDF FCMaroonsMaroonsBlacks Power/Bukedea TCNtugasazeMaroonsMaroonsURA FCUganda PoliceMaroonsMaroonsSC VillaMaroonsVipers SCMaroonsEntebbeKampala Capital City AuthorityMaroonsURA FCMaroonsMaroonsUganda PoliceMbarara City FCMaroonsUPDF FCMaroonsMaroonsUPDF FCUPDF FCMaroonsUPDF FCMaroonsMaroonsUPDF FCMaroonsUPDF FCUPDF FCMaroonsUPDF FCMaroonsUPDF FCMaroonsUPDF FCMaroonsMaroonsUPDF FCMaroonsUPDF FC| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bul FC | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15:4 | +11 | 19 |
| 2 |  SC Villa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16:3 | +13 | 17 |
| 3 |  NEC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12:4 | +8 | 14 |
| 4 |  Entebbe | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7:2 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 |  Blacks Power/Bukedea TC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9:11 | -2 | 12 |
| 6 |  Vipers SC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13:2 | +11 | 11 |
| 7 | Maroons | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13:8 | +5 | 10 |
| 8 |  Kampala Capital City Authority | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4:4 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 |  Kitara FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | UPDF FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Lugazi Municipal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4:9 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 |  Police | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4:10 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 |  Express FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:6 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 |  Mbarara City FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 |  URA FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Ntugasaze | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3:13 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 |  Kataka FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4:17 | -13 | 2 |
| 18 |  Kigezi Homeboys (Kabale Sharp) | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1:9 | -8 | 1 |
UPDF FC vs Maroons Prediction (Sep 17)
Looking for a UPDF FC vs Maroons prediction? The Uganda Premier League clash kicks off on Sep 17, 2026, at 14:00, and our analysis points to a tight contest. Maroons enter as slight favorites with a 35% win probability, while UPDF FC have a 30% chance and the draw stands at 35%.
Team Form
UPDF FC come into this match in poor shape, with no wins in their last five outings (D, L, L, D, L). They drew 0-0 away at Uganda Police on Sep 10, lost 2-1 at Entebbe on Sep 1, and suffered a 2-1 defeat at SC Villa back in May. At home, they were held 0-0 by Calvary FC and lost 2-1 to Kampala Capital City Authority.
Maroons have been more inconsistent but have picked up two wins in their last five (L, W, L, W, D). They lost 2-1 at home to Blacks Power/Bukedea TC on Sep 8, but impressed with a 3-1 away win at Ntugasaze on Sep 2. Earlier, they beat Uganda Police 2-0 on the road and drew 0-0 at home with SC Villa.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record favours Maroons. In 11 previous meetings, UPDF FC have won just once, Maroons have three wins, and there have been seven draws. The most recent encounter, on Mar 14, 2026, ended 0-0 at Maroons. Before that, on Oct 15, 2025, Maroons won 2-1 away at UPDF FC. The last UPDF FC victory came on Apr 16, 2025, a 2-1 home win.
League Table Positions
Both sides are near the bottom of the Uganda Premier League. UPDF FC sit 11th with 2 points from 3 matches (0 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), scoring just 1 goal and conceding 2. Maroons are 8th with 3 points from 3 games (1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses), with 5 goals scored and 5 conceded. The gap is minimal, but Maroons have shown more attacking threat.
Win Probability: UPDF FC or Maroons?
Based on odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities:
- UPDF FC win: 30%
- Draw: 35%
- Maroons win: 35%
Bookmaker odds implied a much lower chance for Maroons (around 20%), but their superior head-to-head record (3 wins to 1), better recent away form (two wins in last three road games), and UPDF FCโs struggles at home (no win in last two home matches) justify a significant upward adjustment. UPDF FCโs home advantage is not enough to make them favourites. Maroons are the more likely winner, but a draw is equally probable.
Odds & Match Prediction
The available odds from bookmakers show UPDF FC as the favourite: a home win is priced around 2.10, the draw at 1.88โ1.95, and an away win at 4.00โ4.05. These odds suggest the market sees UPDF FC as the stronger side, but our analysis indicates Maroons are undervalued. Based on the stats, the safest prediction is a double chance on Maroons or draw. A narrow Maroons victory or a low-scoring draw are the most realistic outcomes.
UPDF FC vs Maroons โ FAQ
- Who will win UPDF FC vs Maroons?
- Maroons have a 35% chance of winning, UPDF FC have a 30% chance, and the draw is at 35%. It is a very close match, but Maroons are slightly more likely to come out on top based on their better head-to-head record and recent away form.
- What is the win probability for Maroons?
- Maroons have a 35% win probability. This is higher than the odds suggest because they have won 3 of the last 11 head-to-head meetings compared to UPDF FC's 1, and they have collected two away wins in their last three road matches.
- When is the UPDF FC vs Maroons match?
- The match is on Sep 17, 2026, at 14:00 local time. It is a Uganda Premier League fixture.
- What are the odds for UPDF FC vs Maroons?
- The odds for a UPDF FC win are around 2.10, the draw is priced between 1.88 and 1.95, and a Maroons victory is available at 4.00 to 4.05. These odds imply UPDF FC are favourites, but our analysis suggests the match is much more balanced.