Mbarara City FC - NEC Bugolobi prediction 11 September 2026
Mbarara City FC
NEC Bugolobi
SC VillaMbarara City FCMbarara City FCBlacks Power/Bukedea TCNtugasazeMbarara City FCMbarara City FCEntebbeMbarara City FCNEC BugolobiUganda PoliceMbarara City FCKampala Capital City AuthorityMbarara City FCMbarara City FCBuhimba United Saints FCMbarara City FCSC VillaLugazi MunicipalMbarara City FCMbarara City FCExpress FCNEC BugolobiMbarara City FCMbarara City FCMaroonsMbarara City FCUganda PoliceUPDF FCMbarara City FCBul FCNEC BugolobiKigezi Homeboys (Kabale Sharp)NEC BugolobiNEC BugolobiExpress FCNEC BugolobiURA FCMbarara City FCNEC BugolobiNEC BugolobiLugazi MunicipalKampala Capital City AuthorityNEC BugolobiNEC BugolobiSC VillaKitara FCNEC BugolobiBul FCNEC BugolobiNEC BugolobiMbarara City FCExpress FCNEC BugolobiNEC BugolobiMaroonsNEC BugolobiURA FCNEC BugolobiVipers SCMbarara City FCNEC BugolobiNEC BugolobiMbarara City FCMbarara City FCNEC BugolobiMbarara City FCNEC BugolobiNEC BugolobiMbarara City FCNEC BugolobiMbarara City FC| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bul FC | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15:4 | +11 | 19 |
| 2 |  SC Villa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16:3 | +13 | 17 |
| 3 |  NEC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12:4 | +8 | 14 |
| 4 |  Entebbe | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7:2 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 |  Blacks Power/Bukedea TC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9:11 | -2 | 12 |
| 6 |  Vipers SC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13:2 | +11 | 11 |
| 7 |  Maroons | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13:8 | +5 | 10 |
| 8 |  Kampala Capital City Authority | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4:4 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 |  Kitara FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 |  UPDF FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Lugazi Municipal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4:9 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 |  Police | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4:10 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 |  Express FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:6 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Mbarara City FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 |  URA FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Ntugasaze | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3:13 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 |  Kataka FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4:17 | -13 | 2 |
| 18 |  Kigezi Homeboys (Kabale Sharp) | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1:9 | -8 | 1 |
Mbarara City FC vs NEC Bugolobi Prediction (Sep 11, 2026)
Mbarara City FC vs NEC Bugolobi prediction for the Uganda Premier League match on Sep 11, 2026 at 13:00. Based on recent form and a dominant head-to-head record, NEC Bugolobi are the clear favourites with a 65% win probability, while the home side Mbarara City FC have just a 15% chance of victory and the draw stands at 20%.
Team Form
Mbarara City FCโs recent form is mixed, with two wins and three losses in their last five outings (L, L, W, L, W). Their most recent match was a 1-0 defeat away to Uganda Police on Aug 29. They also lost heavily 4-1 at Kampala Capital City Authority, but did register a 2-0 home win over Buhimba United Saints FC and a 1-0 away win at Lugazi Municipal.
NEC Bugolobi, on the other hand, are in fine form, winning four of their last five matches (W, W, L, W, W). They started September with a 3-1 home victory against Lugazi Municipal and also beat KCCA 2-0 on the road. Their only recent loss was a 4-1 defeat at home to SC Villa in May.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record is one-sided. NEC Bugolobi have won all five previous meetings, with Mbarara City FC failing to secure a single win or draw. The most recent clash on Apr 24, 2026 saw NEC win 1-0 at home. At the Mbarara City FC ground, NEC have also been successful, winning 1-0 (Nov 2025) and 2-1 (Apr 2025). Overall, NEC have outscored Mbarara 5-2 across the five matches.
League Table Positions
In the Uganda Premier League standings, NEC Bugolobi are sitting in 4th place with a perfect record of two wins from two matches (6 points). Mbarara City FC, meanwhile, are currently outside the top 12, indicating a slow start to their campaign. The home team's absence from the upper half of the table, coupled with NECโs strong away form (one away win, 2 goals scored, 0 conceded), further reinforces the visitorsโ favourite status.
Win Probability: Mbarara City FC or NEC Bugolobi?
After evaluating the key factors โ head-to-head history (NEC 5โ0 wins), current form (NEC 4W-1L, Mbarara 2W-3L), and league positions โ our model assigns the following outcome probabilities: Mbarara City FC win: 15%, Draw: 20%, NEC Bugolobi win: 65%. Home advantage offers Mbarara some hope, but the gulf in quality and NECโs psychological edge from past meetings make an away win the likeliest result. With NEC keeping three clean sheets in five H2H encounters and Mbarara struggling to score against them (2 goals in 5 games), a low-scoring victory for the visitors is a strong possibility.
Odds & Match Prediction
At the time of writing, no bookmaker odds are available for this fixture. Based purely on the statistical analysis, the match prediction points towards a NEC Bugolobi victory. The data suggests a tight contest, but NECโs 100% H2H record and superior form tip the scales decisively in their favour. A 1-0 or 2-0 away win appears the most likely scoreline, continuing the pattern of their previous meetings.
Mbarara City FC vs NEC Bugolobi โ FAQ
- Who will win Mbarara City FC vs NEC Bugolobi?
- NEC Bugolobi are the favorites to win this match. Our analysis gives NEC Bugolobi a 65% win probability, a draw 20%, and Mbarara City FC only a 15% chance.
- What is the win probability for NEC Bugolobi?
- NEC Bugolobi have a 65% chance of winning. This high probability is based on their 100% head-to-head record (5 wins in 5 meetings) and much stronger recent form and league position compared to Mbarara City FC.
- When is the Mbarara City FC vs NEC Bugolobi match?
- The match is set for Sep 11, 2026, with kick-off at 13:00. It is a Uganda Premier League fixture.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Currently, no odds are available in our data for this match. Check back closer to the game for the latest prices from bookmakers.
- What is the head-to-head record between Mbarara City FC and NEC Bugolobi?
- NEC Bugolobi have won all five previous encounters, with an aggregate score of 5-2. Mbarara City FC have yet to record a draw or a win against NEC.