Merani Martvili - Sioni Bolnisi prediction 16 September 2026

The Merani Martvili vs Sioni Bolnisi prediction for the Erovnuli 2 match on Sep 16 at 12:00 is a tight affair, with the home side Merani Martvili holding a slight advantage. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Merani Martvili has a 38% chance of winning, while the draw is at 30% and Sioni Bolnisi has a 32% probability.

Team Form

Merani Martvili

Merani Martvili's recent form has been inconsistent. In their last five matches, they recorded one win, one draw, and three losses (W L L L D). Their most recent outing was a 3-1 home victory against Aragvi Dusheti on Sep 12, which ended a four-game winless streak. Prior to that, they suffered defeats to Kolkheti Poti (0-2), Gareji (1-2), and Telavi (0-1), and drew 0-0 with FC Odishi 1919 Lazika Zugdidi. At home, Merani have been relatively solid, with a record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses in 13 league matches this season.

Sioni Bolnisi

Sioni Bolnisi come into this match with a slightly better run of form: two draws, two wins, and one loss in their last five (D D W W L). They drew 1-1 with Kolkheti Poti and 3-3 with Gareji in their last two away games, showing resilience on the road. Before that, they beat Telavi 2-1 and FC Odishi 1919 Lazika Zugdidi 1-0, with a 0-1 home loss to Shturmi interrupting that positive streak. Sioni's away form has been poor overall (2 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses), but recent away draws suggest improvement.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five meetings between these sides, Sioni Bolnisi have the upper hand with 3 wins, while Merani Martvili have won once and there have been 2 draws. The most recent clash on Jun 13, 2026, saw Sioni win 2-0 at home. However, Merani won the last encounter at this venue, a 2-1 victory on Apr 22, 2026. The head-to-head history points to a competitive fixture, with Sioni often getting the better of Merani.

League Table Positions

In the Erovnuli 2 standings, Merani Martvili sit 4th with 34 points from 25 matches (9 wins, 7 draws, 9 losses), while Sioni Bolnisi are 6th with 33 points (8 wins, 9 draws, 8 losses). The home/away split is telling: Merani have collected 22 points from 13 home games (5th best home record), whereas Sioni have managed only 10 points from 12 away trips (7th in the away table). This home advantage is a key factor in the prediction.

Win Probability: Merani Martvili or Sioni Bolnisi?

After analyzing the odds, form, and head-to-head data, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Merani Martvili win: 38%
• Draw: 30%
• Sioni Bolnisi win: 32%

The base probabilities were derived from the bookmaker odds (home 2.32, draw 3.38, away 3.08), which implied a 41% home win, 28% draw, and 31% away win after removing the margin. We adjusted these figures slightly downward for Merani due to their inconsistent recent form (only one win in five) and upward for the draw and Sioni, reflecting Sioni's improved away performances and their historical edge in this fixture. Merani's strong home record and the venue factor keep them as the marginal favorite, but the match is very evenly poised.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for the 1X2 market show Merani Martvili at 2.32, the draw at 3.38, and Sioni Bolnisi at 3.08. Bookmakers clearly see Merani as the favorite, but the odds also indicate a competitive contest with no clear standout. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a narrow home win, but a draw or an away victory are well within the realms of possibility. Our prediction: Merani Martvili to win, but with low confidence given the tight probabilities.