Mes Kerman - Mes Rafsanjan prediction 12 October 2026

The Mes Kerman vs Mes Rafsanjan prediction for this Azadegan League clash on Oct 12, 2026, at 12:30 points towards a tight contest where the visitors have a slight edge. Based on current form, head-to-head records, and league standings, Mes Rafsanjan enters the match as the favorite with approximately a 38% chance of winning, while Mes Kerman's home advantage narrows the gap, giving them around a 35% probability.

Team Form

Mes Kerman's recent form is a major concern heading into this fixture. Looking at their last five matches, they have recorded four draws and one loss (D, L, D, D, D). This run includes a 0-0 stalemate against Niroye Zamini on Oct 5 and a 0-1 home defeat to Saipa on Sep 22. The lack of goals is a glaring issue, as they failed to score in four of those five games.

In contrast, Mes Rafsanjan's form is much more positive. Their recent record across the last five outings shows three wins, one draw, and one loss (W, W, D, W, L). They secured back-to-back 1-0 home victories against Ario on Oct 5 and Besat Kermanshah on Sep 29. This defensive solidity and winning momentum gives them a clear psychological advantage.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical record between these two sides slightly favors Mes Kerman. In their last 10 encounters across all competitions, Mes Kerman has won 5, Mes Rafsanjan has won 3, and 2 matches have ended in draws. However, the most recent meeting, a Pro League fixture on Apr 24, 2023, saw Mes Rafsanjan win 1-0 at home. The last time they met in the Azadegan League was on Jun 30, 2020, a 0-0 draw right here at Mes Kerman's ground.

League Table Positions

Mes Rafsanjan sits comfortably in the upper part of the table. They are 4th overall with 8 points from 4 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses). Their defensive record is impeccable, with 2 goals scored and 0 conceded. The home standings highlight their strength, as they are ranked 1st as the home side in this match with 7 points from 3 home games.

Mes Kerman's position in the league table is not detailed in the current standings data, implying they are outside the top 12 or have not accumulated enough points to feature. This absence from the top ranks underlines their underdog status compared to their 4th-placed rivals.

Win Probability: Mes Kerman or Mes Rafsanjan?

After analyzing the available data, the win probabilities for this match are estimated as follows: Mes Kerman has a 35% chance, a draw is at 27%, and Mes Rafsanjan has a 38% chance of winning. The base calculation uses inverse odds from the bookmakers (normalized to remove margin), which show a high probability of a draw (odds of 1.83). This is then adjusted for factors like Mes Rafsanjan's superior recent form (3 wins in 5 vs. 0 wins in 5 for Kerman) and the home advantage for Mes Kerman. Mes Rafsanjan is the more likely winner, but the margin is slim.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for the match reflect the competitive nature of this fixture. The most attractive price in the market shows a home win for Mes Kerman at 3.50, a draw at 1.82, and an away win for Mes Rafsanjan at 3.50. The very low odds on the draw indicate that bookmakers see a stalemate as a highly probable outcome.

Mes Kerman vs Mes Rafsanjan betting tips: Based on the stats, a draw is the statistical safety net, but Mes Rafsanjan's form makes them a tempting pick. Given Mes Kerman's struggles to score and the visitors' clean sheet record, a low-scoring affair is expected. Our prediction leans towards an away win or a draw for Mes Rafsanjan, as they have the momentum to edge this contest.