Gagra - Metalurgi Rustavi prediction 27 October 2026

Our Gagra vs Metalurgi Rustavi prediction analyzes the Cup match on October 27, 2026 at 16:00. Based on the latest odds, form, and head-to-head record, Metalurgi Rustavi enters as a slight favorite with a 41% win probability, compared to 36% for Gagra and a 23% chance of a draw.

Team Form

Gagra comes into this match in poor form, with two draws and three losses in their last five Erovnuli outings. They drew 0-0 at Spaeri on Oct 23, lost 1-3 at home to Dinamo Batumi, suffered a 3-0 away loss at Samgurali, drew 1-1 with Mesakhte Tkibuli, and were beaten 4-0 by Dinamo Tbilisi. Metalurgi Rustavi shows much stronger recent results with three wins, one draw, and one loss. Their last five include a 2-0 home loss to Dinamo Tbilisi, a 1-0 away win at Torpedo Kutaisi, a 3-1 home victory over FC Dila Gori, a 2-1 Cup win at Samtredia, and a 2-0 home defeat by FC Iberia 1999.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five meetings, both teams have won twice with one draw. The most recent clash on August 22, 2026 saw Metalurgi Rustavi win 3-0 at home. The previous Erovnuli encounter on May 16, 2026 ended in a 1-1 draw in Gagra. Earlier in 2026, Gagra won 2-1 at Metalurgi Rustavi on March 15. Going further back, Gagra won 1-0 at home in 2017, while Metalurgi Rustavi won a 2017 friendly 3-1. The H2H record is perfectly balanced, with each team holding two wins.

League Table Positions

Both teams compete in the Erovnuli, Georgia's top division, though this match is a Cup fixture. No specific league table positions or points tallies are provided in the data for a direct comparison. However, Gagra's recent Erovnuli form (0 wins in 5) suggests they may be struggling near the lower end of the table, while Metalurgi Rustavi's three recent league wins indicate a more comfortable mid-table or top-half position.

Win Probability: Gagra or Metalurgi Rustavi?

Based on the odds and recent form, we calculate the following win probabilities: Metalurgi Rustavi has a 41% chance of winning, Gagra has a 36% chance, and the probability of a draw is 23%. These percentages are derived by taking the inverse of the average bookmaker odds (3.42 home, 2.70 draw, 2.26 away), normalizing them to remove the margin, and then adjusting for form. Metalurgi Rustavi's three wins in five games significantly outweigh Gagra's winless run of five matches, which tilts the probability in favor of the away side despite the home advantage. The balanced home/away factor in this neutral Cup setting and the even H2H record (2 wins each in last 4 competitive matches) further support a close contest with a slight edge for the in-form team.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a tight contest. The best available odds are: Gagra home win at 3.94, a draw at 3.33, and a Metalurgi Rustavi away win at 2.08. The average odds across five bookmakers are 3.42 for a home win, 2.70 for a draw, and 2.26 for an away win. These odds confirm Metalurgi Rustavi as the narrow favorite. Based on the stats, our betting tips lean towards a low-scoring affair given Gagra's recent offensive struggles—they have failed to score in three of their last five games—and Metalurgi Rustavi's mixed scoring record. A 1-0 or 2-1 away win for Metalurgi Rustavi is the most likely match outcome.