Metz - Pau prediction 30 October 2026

Our Metz vs Pau prediction is set for the Ligue 2 match on Oct 30 at 19:00. Based on the data, Metz has a 47% chance of winning, Pau has a 28% chance, and the draw probability is 25%. Metz enters this match as the favorite on home soil at Stade Saint-Symphorien.

Team Form

Metz's home form has been inconsistent, with their last five home matches showing a pattern of D, W, L, D, L. Their most recent result was a 1-1 away draw at USL Dunkerque on Oct 23. Prior to that, they secured a 3-2 home win over Sochaux on Oct 17 and suffered a 4-2 loss at Dijon. They have scored in four of those five matches but have managed only one clean sheet.

Pau comes into this fixture in excellent form. Their last five away results are W, W, W, W, L. Most recently, they earned a 2-1 home win against Grenoble on Oct 23. On the road, they have been particularly strong, beating Guingamp 2-1 and losing only once in this sequence, a narrow 1-0 defeat at Montpellier. With four wins in five, they carry significant momentum.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these sides slightly favors Metz. In the last 5 meetings, Metz has won 2, Pau has won 1, and there have been 2 draws. The most recent clash, on Apr 26, 2025, saw Pau claim a 2-1 home victory. The match prior, at Metz on Jan 4, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw. Meetings have historically been tight, with both teams finding the net in three of the five matches.

League Table Positions

In the overall Ligue 2 standings, Pau sits in 5th place with 17 points from 10 matches, boasting a 5-2-3 record and a +3 goal difference. Metz is positioned 8th with 14 points, having drawn half of their 10 games (3-5-2), with a +2 goal differential. The tight gap underscores how competitive this fixture is likely to be.

Looking at the home form table, Metz is strong at home, ranking 2nd with 11 points from 5 unbeaten matches (3 wins, 2 draws). Pau's away form is also respectable, with 7 points from 4 trips (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), placing them 7th in the away standings.

Win Probability: Metz or Pau?

After normalizing the implied probabilities from the available bookmaker odds and adjusting for recent form, head-to-head trends, and the home/away league table data, we calculate the following win probabilities: Metz has a 47% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Pau has a 28% chance. Metz's unbeaten home record gives them a clear edge, but Pau's strong run of four wins in five away matches makes them a dangerous outsider. The most likely outcome is a Metz win, though the match is finely balanced.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a contest that leans towards the home side. The available pre-match 1X2 odds show Metz as the favorite, with best odds as low as 1.95 for a home win. A draw is offered at around 2.25 to 2.35, while a Pau away win is priced higher, with odds up to 3.75. These odds confirm that the market expects a competitive match but gives Metz a clear advantage at home. Based on the stats, the Metz vs Pau prediction points to a home win, though Pau's recent form suggests they cannot be underestimated.