Verspah Oita - Minebea Mitsumi/Honda Lock prediction 11 October 2026

Verspah Oita vs Minebea Mitsumi/Honda Lock prediction for the J4 League match on October 11, 2026. Verspah Oita enters as the favorite with a 47% win probability, while Minebea Mitsumi/Honda Lock has a 22% chance of an away victory. The draw is rated at 31%.

Team Form

Verspah Oita's last five matches: L, D, W, D, W. They lost 3-0 away to Veertien MIE, drew 1-1 at home against Azul Claro Numazu, won 2-1 away at J-Lease, drew 0-0 away at Briobecca Urayasu, and beat Grulla Morioka 3-1 at home. The home side has two wins, two draws, and one loss in this stretch.

Minebea Mitsumi/Honda Lock's last five: W, L, W, D, W. They won 1-0 away at Honda FC, lost 0-1 at home to Veertien MIE, won 2-1 away at YSCC Yokohama, drew 1-1 at home with Okinawa SV, and won 2-1 away at Briobecca Urayasu. The away side collected three wins, one draw, and one loss, with all three wins coming on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

Verspah Oita dominates the H2H with 7 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in 11 meetings. The last five encounters:

• May 3, 2026: Minebea Mitsumi/Honda Lock 0-2 Verspah Oita (League Cup)
• Jul 12, 2025: Minebea Mitsumi/Honda Lock 1-2 Verspah Oita (J4 League)
• Mar 9, 2025: Verspah Oita 2-1 Minebea Mitsumi/Honda Lock (J League)
• Nov 3, 2024: Verspah Oita 0-0 Minebea Mitsumi/Honda Lock (J League)
• Apr 1, 2023: Minebea Mitsumi/Honda Lock 0-1 Verspah Oita (J3 League)

Verspah Oita won four of those five, with one draw, and kept three clean sheets.

League Table Positions

In the J4 League overall standings, Verspah Oita sits 6th with 46 points (13W, 7D, 9L; goals 39:32). Minebea Mitsumi/Honda Lock is 10th with 34 points (9W, 7D, 13L; goals 38:38).

At home, Verspah Oita ranks 6th with 25 points from 14 games (8W, 1D, 5L; 21:16). Minebea Mitsumi/Honda Lock's away record is 8th with 20 points from 15 matches (5W, 5D, 5L; 25:20). The home side has a clear advantage in the table.

Win Probability: Verspah Oita or Minebea Mitsumi/Honda Lock?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league positions, the win probabilities are: Verspah Oita 47%, draw 31%, Minebea Mitsumi/Honda Lock 22%. The odds implied a 41.2% home win, 36.6% draw, and 22.2% away win before adjustment. Verspah Oita's strong H2H dominance (7-1-3 overall, 4-1-0 in last five) and higher table position shifted probability from the draw to the home side. Minebea Mitsumi/Honda Lock's recent away form (three wins in last five) keeps their chances at 22%.

Odds & Match Prediction

Average bookmaker odds: Verspah Oita win 2.19, draw 2.46, Minebea Mitsumi/Honda Lock win 4.06. One bookmaker offers a low 1.80 for the home win, while others are around 2.30–2.35. The draw is priced tightly at 2.15–2.20 by most, indicating a competitive match. Based on the stats, Verspah Oita is the more likely winner, but the draw cannot be ruled out given the odds and both teams' recent form. A 1-0 or 2-1 home victory aligns with the H2H pattern.