Alacranes de Durango - Mineros de Zacatecas prediction 4 October 2026

The Alacranes de Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas prediction for October 4, 2026, points to a tight Liga de Expansion MX contest where the home side holds a slight edge. Based on head-to-head dominance and home advantage, Alacranes de Durango enter as the favorite with a 45% win probability, while Mineros de Zacatecas sit at 25% and the draw at 30%.

Team Form

Alacranes de Durango come into this match with a mixed run of results: two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five outings (W, W, L, D, D). They secured a 1-0 away victory at Dorados de Sinaloa on September 27 and beat Cruz Azul Hidalgo 2-0 at home on September 18, but fell 1-0 at Alebrijes de Oaxaca on September 11. The two draws were 1-1 at home to Tlaxcala FC and 0-0 at Correcaminos UAT.

Mineros de Zacatecas have also recorded three wins and two defeats in their last five (W, W, L, L, W). They thrashed Piratas Veracruz 3-0 at home on September 25, won 1-0 at CD Tepatitlan de Morelos on September 19, and beat Tampico Madero 2-0 at home on August 30. The losses were a 1-0 home reverse to Atletico Morelia and a 3-0 defeat at Atletico La Paz.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Alacranes de Durango, who have won both previous meetings with no draws. On October 14, 2022, Alacranes de Durango triumphed 4-1 at home, and on January 28, 2023, they won 2-1 away at Mineros de Zacatecas. The aggregate score across the two matches is 6-2 in favor of Alacranes de Durango.

League Table Positions

In the overall Liga de Expansion MX standings, Mineros de Zacatecas sit 4th with 17 points from 10 matches (5 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses), while Alacranes de Durango (listed as Durango) are 10th with 14 points (4 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses). However, the away table shows Durango in 3rd place with 10 points from 6 away games, indicating strong performances on the road. Mineros de Zacatecas are 2nd in the home table, but this match is at Alacranes de Durango's ground.

Win Probability: Alacranes de Durango or Mineros de Zacatecas?

Alacranes de Durango has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Mineros de Zacatecas has a 25% chance. These probabilities are derived from the bookmaker odds (home 2.10, draw 2.20, away 3.70), adjusted for the head-to-head record where Alacranes de Durango have won both encounters, and the home advantage. Despite Mineros de Zacatecas' higher league position, the H2H trend and home field tilt the balance toward Alacranes de Durango.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a closely matched affair. The best available odds show a home win at 2.10, a draw at 2.20, and an away win at 3.70. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a narrow victory for Alacranes de Durango, but the draw cannot be ruled out given both teams' recent form. A 1-0 or 2-1 home win aligns with the data.