Minija Kretinga - FK Kauno Zalgiris B prediction 2 October 2026

The Minija Kretinga vs FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 prediction is for the 1 Lyga match in Lithuania, scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 15:00. Based on current form and odds, Minija Kretinga enters as the heavy favorite with a win probability of 78%, leaving FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 with just an 8% chance of an away victory, and a 14% probability of a draw.

Team Form

Minija Kretinga are in flawless form with five consecutive wins across all competitions:

• Sep 19: Minija Kretinga 2-1 Neptunas Klaipeda (1 Lyga)
• Sep 12: Dainava Alytus 0-3 Minija Kretinga (1 Lyga)
• Sep 5: Minija Kretinga 3-0 FK Transinvest B (1 Lyga)
• Sep 1: Minija Kretinga 3-2 Dainava Alytus (Cup)
• Aug 28: FA Siauliai B 1-2 Minija Kretinga (1 Lyga)

FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 have a mixed record in their last five outings:

• Sep 19: FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 3-2 Garliava (1 Lyga)
• Sep 12: FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 2-1 Ekranas Panevezio (1 Lyga)
• Sep 4: Be1 NFA Kaunas 1-0 FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 (1 Lyga)
• Aug 29: FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 3-0 Hegelmann Litauen II (1 Lyga)
• Aug 22: Minija Kretinga 0-0 FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 (1 Lyga)

Head-to-Head Record

In the all-time head-to-head between these sides, Minija Kretinga dominate with 6 wins, compared to FK Kauno Zalgiris 2's 2 victories; 2 matches ended in a draw. The last five meetings tell a similar story: Minija have won three, drawn one and lost one. The most recent clash was a 0-0 stalemate on August 22, 2026. Before that, Minija won 4-0 away (Apr 19, 2026), 2-1 away (Sep 13, 2025), and 2-0 at home (May 10, 2025). FK Kauno Zalgiris 2's last win over Minija was a 2-1 away success on March 8, 2024.

League Table Positions

Minija Kretinga lead the 1 Lyga with 64 points from 24 matches (21 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), scoring 63 goals and conceding only 13. At home they are perfect: 11 wins from 11 matches, with 30 goals for and 6 against. FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 sit 12th in the standings with 22 points (7 wins, 1 draw, 16 losses) and a goal difference of -15. The gulf in class is stark, especially when comparing Minija's home supremacy to the visitors' lowly position.

Win Probability: Minija Kretinga or FK Kauno Zalgiris 2?

Using the available 1X2 odds (1.13 for a home win, 6.10 for the draw, 12.50 for an away win) as the base and normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin, the implied probabilities are approximately 78% for Minija Kretinga, 14% for the draw, and 8% for FK Kauno Zalgiris 2. These figures are strongly supported by form and league data: Minija have a 100% home record, sit top of the table, and have a dominant H2H history. FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 are 12th with only 7 wins all season. Therefore, Minija Kretinga has a 78% chance of winning, the draw is at 14%, and FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 has an 8% chance.

Odds & Match Prediction

The current full-time result odds are: Minija Kretinga at 1.13, draw at 6.10, FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 at 12.50. Bookmakers see Minija as overwhelming favorites, and the stats back that up. Based on the team form, H2H record, league standings, and win probability, our match prediction is a home victory for Minija Kretinga.