Zabkovia Zabki - Mlawianka Mlawa prediction 25 September 2026

The Zabkovia Zabki vs Mlawianka Mlawa prediction for this III Liga match on September 25, 2026, at 15:00 points towards a home victory. Based on the available data, Zabkovia Zabki has a 62% chance of winning, the draw is at 18%, and Mlawianka Mlawa has a 20% chance.

Team Form

Zabkovia Zabki comes into this match in strong form, having won four of their last five matches (W, W, L, W, W). Their recent results include a 2-0 away win against LKS Lomza and a 4-2 home victory over Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki. The only blemish was a 2-0 loss away to league leaders Weszlo.

Mlawianka Mlawa's form is a major concern. They have only one win in their last five outings (W, L, L, L, D). Defensive frailties are evident, conceding 7 goals against Jagiellonia Bialystok II and 5 against Wisla Plock II. Their most recent match was a 4-1 home win against Troszyn, which may provide a slight confidence boost.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two sides is perfectly balanced, with one win each and no draws. The most recent meeting was on November 22, 2025, where Mlawianka Mlawa secured a 2-1 home victory. However, in the reverse fixture on August 2, 2025, Zabkovia Zabki dominated with a crushing 6-2 win at home. This suggests a strong home advantage in this fixture.

League Table Positions

Zabkovia Zabki sits 4th in the overall III Liga standings with 16 points from 9 matches (5 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses). Their home form is particularly impressive, ranking 5th with an unbeaten record of 3 wins and 1 draw, scoring 8 goals and conceding just 4.

Mlawianka Mlawa is not featured in the top 12 of the available league table, indicating a lower position in the standings. This gap in the table highlights the gulf in class and consistency between the two teams this season.

Win Probability: Zabkovia Zabki or Mlawianka Mlawa?

Based on the analysis of team form, head-to-head record, and league table positions, the win probabilities for this match are as follows: Zabkovia Zabki win: 62%, Draw: 18%, Mlawianka Mlawa win: 20%. The calculation is primarily driven by the stark contrast in recent form and league standing. Zabkovia Zabki's excellent home record, where they are yet to lose, is a decisive factor. Mlawianka Mlawa's poor defensive record on the road makes an away win highly unlikely. The head-to-head history, while even overall, shows a pattern of dominant home performances, further supporting the probability of a home win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Specific match odds for this fixture are not available in the provided data. However, based on the stats, bookmakers would likely see Zabkovia Zabki as the clear favorite. The home side's strong form and high league position contrast sharply with the visitor's struggles. Our prediction is a home win for Zabkovia Zabki. The team's solid defense at home should be able to contain a Mlawianka Mlawa side that has conceded heavily in recent away matches.