Modbury Jets SC - Adelaide Victory prediction 25 July 2026

Modbury Jets SC vs Adelaide Victory prediction for the South State League match on Jul 25, 2026. Based on our analysis, Modbury Jets SC are the favorites with a 55% win probability, while Adelaide Victory have a 20% chance and the draw stands at 25%.

Team Form

Modbury Jets SC come into this match with a mixed but resilient recent record: two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five outings. Their most notable result was a commanding 4-1 home victory over Adelaide Olimpic on Jun 27. They also secured a 3-2 away win at Salisbury United on Jul 18. The two goalless draws against The Cove FC and Eastern United show defensive solidity, though a 3-1 defeat at Adelaide Blue Eagles on Jul 13 exposed some vulnerability on the road.

Adelaide Victory's form is concerning. They have managed just one win in their last five matches (a 4-0 home thrashing of Adelaide Blue Eagles on Jun 27), alongside one draw and three defeats. They lost 1-0 at home to Adelaide Olimpic on Jul 18 and suffered a heavy 4-1 away loss to Fulham United on Jun 13. With only one clean sheet in that period, their defense looks shaky.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Modbury Jets SC. In 12 previous meetings, Modbury have won 7, Adelaide Victory 2, with 3 draws. The most recent clash on May 2, 2026, saw Modbury Jets SC win 2-1 away at Adelaide Victory. Earlier this year, on Apr 25, they played out a 0-0 draw in the Australia Cup. The historical dominance and the latest result give Modbury a clear psychological edge.

League Table Positions

In the South State League overall standings, Modbury Jets SC sit 4th with 32 points from 18 games (9 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses), while Adelaide Victory are 6th with 30 points (9 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses). Modbury's home form is particularly strong: they are 3rd in the home table with 19 points from 9 matches (6 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats) and a goal difference of +16 (23 scored, 7 conceded). Adelaide Victory's away record is respectable at 4th with 14 points from 8 games (4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses), but they have conceded 15 goals on the road.

Win Probability: Modbury Jets SC or Adelaide Victory?

After evaluating all available data, Modbury Jets SC have a 55% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Adelaide Victory have a 20% chance. This calculation is based on Modbury's superior league position, dominant head-to-head record (7 wins in 12), excellent home form (67% win rate), and Adelaide Victory's poor recent run (one win in five). The draw probability reflects Modbury's two recent stalemates and Adelaide's ability to grind out results away from home. Overall, Modbury Jets SC are the clear favorites to take all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for this fixture are not currently available. Once released, they are expected to price Modbury Jets SC as favorites given their higher win probability and home advantage. Our prediction, based on the stats, is a home win for Modbury Jets SC.