Carrarese - Modena prediction 17 October 2026

The Modena vs Carrarese prediction for this Serie B clash on October 17, 2026, points to a strong advantage for the visitors. Based on the latest odds, league table positions, and form, Modena have a 50% chance of winning, while Carrarese sit at just 20%. A draw is priced at 30%. The match kicks off at 14:00 at Stadio dei Marmi in Milan, where Carrarese will try to upset the odds.

Team Form

Carrarese’s recent home form is alarmingly poor. They have lost four of their last five home matches (0–1 vs Benevento, 0–1 vs Empoli, 1–2 vs Mantova, and a 0–1 defeat at Catanzaro) and managed only one draw (1–1 at Ascoli). They have failed to score in three of those five outings.

Modena, by contrast, have been solid on the road. Their last five away results read W, D, L, W, W – a 2–1 win at Empoli, a 1–1 draw at Sudtirol, a 0–3 defeat at Cremonese, a 3–0 victory at Cremonese, and a 2–1 win at Benevento. The only blemish in that run was the Cremonese loss; otherwise they have conceded just two goals in the other four away matches combined.

Head-to-Head Record

Recent meetings between Modena and Carrarese are split. In the last four Serie B encounters, Modena have won twice (both 2–0 at home), Carrarese won once (2–1 at home in May 2025), and one match ended 0–0 at Carrarese in October 2025. Notably, at this venue, Carrarese are unbeaten in two matches against Modena (a win and a draw), but that record now faces a far stronger Modena side.

League Table Positions

The standings tell a clear story. Modena enter the match in 6th place with 10 points from5 games (3 wins,1 draw,1 loss), boasting an away record of2 wins and1 draw in3 outings with6 goals scored and only2 conceded. Carrarese are nowhere near the top12 – they don’t appear in the provided league table, suggesting they are languishing in the lower reaches of Serie B. The gap in quality is significant.

Win Probability: Modena or Carrarese?

Using the implied probabilities from bookmaker odds (home 4.00, draw 2.25, away 2.25) as a base, and then adjusting for form and league position, the calculated win probabilities are: Modena win 50%, draw 30%, Carrarese win20%. Modena’s strong away form and Carrarese’s terrible home run shift the balance decisively in favour of the visitors.

Odds & Match Prediction

The 1X2 market offers odds of about4.00 for a Carrarese victory,2.25 for the draw, and2.25 for a Modena win. Bookmakers see Modena as the joint-favourite side with the draw, implying a 39% chance for each, while Carrarese are given only about22%. Given the actual form and league data, our analysis gives Modena an even higher probability. Therefore, the most likely match outcome is an away win for Modena, though a draw cannot be ruled out.