Northeast United - Mohun Bagan Super Giants prediction 12 October 2026

Welcome to our Northeast United vs Mohun Bagan Super Giants prediction for October 12, 2026. This Indian Super League clash kicks off at 15:00 at the Indira Gandhi Athletic Stadium in Guwahati, and based on all available data, Mohun Bagan Super Giants are the clear favourites with a 60% win probability.

Team Form

Northeast United come into this match with a home form line of W-W-W-L-L. They enjoyed three straight victories – a 2-0 win over Mohammedan SC, a 4-1 thrashing of Chennaiyin FC and a 3-2 away success at Inter Kashi – but then lost 0-2 to FC Goa and 0-1 at home to Mohun Bagan Super Giants. That recent defeat to their upcoming opponents will be a psychological blow.

Mohun Bagan Super Giants are unbeaten in their last five matches (W-D-D-D-W). They beat Sporting Club Delhi 2-1, drew 1-1 with East Bengal, played out a 0-0 stalemate with Inter Kashi, drew 1-1 at FC Goa and, most significantly, won 1-0 at Northeast United’s ground on April 19, 2026. The away form is solid, and with only one goal conceded in the last three outings, their defence looks organised.

Head-to-Head Record

The history between these two clubs is heavily one-sided. In 24 previous meetings, Northeast United have managed just 3 wins, with 2 draws and 19 wins for Mohun Bagan Super Giants. Recent encounters underline that dominance:

• Apr 19, 2026: Northeast United 0–1 Mohun Bagan Super Giants
• Dec 8, 2024: Northeast United 0–2 Mohun Bagan Super Giants
• Feb 17, 2024: Mohun Bagan Super Giants 4–2 Northeast United
• Dec 15, 2023: Northeast United 1–3 Mohun Bagan Super Giants
• Dec 24, 2022: Northeast United 1–0 Mohun Bagan Super Giants

Mohun Bagan have won their last three visits to Guwahati, conceding only once. Northeast United’s lone recent win came back in 2022, so the historical head-to-head gives a massive edge to the away side.

League Table Positions

The Super League season has not yet started, therefore all teams are level on zero points and zero matches played. No table advantage can be applied to either side; we rely purely on squad quality, form and head-to-head history.

Win Probability: Northeast United or Mohun Bagan Super Giants?

Using the available bookmaker odds as the base, we removed the overround margin (implied home 18.4%, draw 37.8%, away 43.8%) and then adjusted for form and H2H records. The heavy head-to-head dominance (19 wins for Mohun Bagan in 24 clashes), the visitors’ current unbeaten run and Northeast United’s back-to-back losses, including a home defeat to this same opponent, all point to a clear away victory.

Our final win probabilities are:

• Northeast United: 15% chance
• Draw: 25% chance
• Mohun Bagan Super Giants: 60% chance

Mohun Bagan Super Giants are significantly more likely to take all three points according to this analysis.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers agree with the data: the average odds across the market are Northeast United 4.75, the draw 2.31 and Mohun Bagan Super Giants 1.99. This pricing makes the away side a strong favourite. Taking everything into account – the devastating H2H record, current form and the lack of competitive table stakes – our Northeast United vs Mohun Bagan Super Giants prediction is an away win. For betting tips, backing Mohun Bagan Super Giants to win offers value, while the under 2.5 goals market could also be appealing given the visitors’ recent tight defence and the 1-0 scoreline in the last meeting.