Montana - Hebar Pazardzhik prediction 21 September 2026

Our Montana vs Hebar Pazardzhik prediction for the B PFG match on Sep 21, 2026, at 17:30 local time analyzes the key stats and odds. Montana are slight favorites with a 36% win probability, while a draw is almost as likely at 35% and Hebar Pazardzhik sit at 29%.

Team Form

Montana’s recent results: L, L, D, W, L. Their last five matches have seen only one win and one draw, with three defeats. They suffered heavy losses at CSKA Sofia 2 (4-0) and at home to Vihren Sandanski (1-4). A 3-0 home win over Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa and a 0-0 draw at Beroe Stara Zagora offered brief respite. Over these five games, Montana scored 5 and conceded 10, highlighting defensive frailties.

Hebar Pazardzhik’s form: W, L, D, D, W. They beat Etar Veliko Tarnovo 4-1 at home and followed it with a narrow 2-3 away loss at Spartak Pleven. Back-to-back 1-1 draws against Fratria (home) and Ludogorets Razgrad II (away) showed resilience, and a 1-0 home win against Chernomorets Burgas rounded off a slightly positive run. Hebar scored 9 and conceded 6 in this period, with both wins coming at home.

Head-to-Head Record

In six total meetings, Montana lead the head-to-head 5 wins to 1, with no draws. The most recent encounter on Mar 9, 2022, saw Montana win 3-0 away. Hebar’s lone success came on Aug 23, 2021, a 1-0 away win. Montana have won both home fixtures in this sample, including a 2-1 result in February 2020. Historically, this fixture heavily favours the home side.

Win Probability: Montana or Hebar Pazardzhik?

Based on the available data, the match outcome probabilities are: Montana win — 36%, Draw — 35%, Hebar Pazardzhik win — 29%. The odds from bookmakers (home 2.30, draw 2.57, away 3.07 on average) imply a slight home advantage, which is reinforced by Montana’s dominant H2H record (5-1) and the fact they are playing at home. However, Montana’s recent poor form (1W-1D-3L) and Hebar’s slightly better run (2W-2D-1L) increase the likelihood of a drawn result. The draw probability of 35% is notably high, reflecting the uncertainty in a matchup between two mid-table teams lacking consistency.

Odds & Match Prediction

The average odds across bookmakers are: Montana win at 2.30, draw at 2.57, and Hebar Pazardzhik away win at 3.07. These prices indicate a competitive game with Montana as the marginal favorites. Our probability model aligns with the odds but gives a slightly higher chance to the draw. Based on all stats, the most probable outcome is a narrow Montana victory, yet the draw stands out as a tempting option for bettors seeking value. A low-scoring encounter is plausible given both sides’ recent defensive records.