Fujieda MYFC - Montedio Yamagata prediction 17 October 2026

The Fujieda MYFC vs Montedio Yamagata prediction for October 17, 2026, points to a tight J2 League contest where the home side holds a slight edge. Based on our win probability analysis, Fujieda MYFC has a 38% chance to win, a draw stands at 35%, and Montedio Yamagata has a 27% chance. The match kicks off at 06:00 local time at Fujieda MYFC's ground.

Team Form

Fujieda MYFC enter this fixture winless in their last five outings (0W, 3D, 2L). They lost 1-0 at Sagan Tosu, drew 1-1 with Shonan Bellmare, lost 2-1 at home to Cerezo Osaka in the League Cup, and recorded back-to-back 1-1 draws against Oita Trinita and Omiya Ardija. Despite the lack of wins, they have been tough to beat at home, remaining unbeaten in five home league games this season.

Montedio Yamagata are in even worse form, with just one victory in their last five (1W, 0D, 4L). They fell 2-1 at Oita Trinita, lost 2-1 at home to Yokohama F Marinos in the League Cup, beat Sagan Tosu 2-0 at home, then suffered a 2-0 home defeat to Kataller Toyama and a 1-0 loss at Albirex Niigata. Away from home, they have won only once in four league trips this season.

Head-to-Head Record

The last five meetings between these sides have produced no draws, with Montedio Yamagata winning three and Fujieda MYFC two. The most recent clash on November 29, 2025, ended 2-1 to Montedio Yamagata at home. Earlier in 2025, Fujieda MYFC won 2-1 at home. In 2024, Fujieda MYFC grabbed a 1-0 away win, while the 2023 encounters both went to the home team: Montedio Yamagata won 3-2 and Fujieda MYFC lost 2-1 at home. The head-to-head record suggests another close, low-margin affair.

League Table Positions

Fujieda MYFC sit 8th in the J2 League with 13 points from 10 matches (3W, 4D, 3L). They have scored 13 goals and conceded 11. At home, they are 6th with a 2-3-0 record, netting 7 and conceding only 3. Montedio Yamagata are 12th with 12 points from 9 games (4W, 0D, 5L), scoring 11 and conceding 8. Their away form is poor: 1 win and 3 losses in 4 road matches. The table highlights Fujieda MYFC's home strength and Montedio Yamagata's travel struggles.

Win Probability: Fujieda MYFC or Montedio Yamagata?

After normalizing bookmaker odds and adjusting for team form, head-to-head, and home/away factors, the win probabilities are: Fujieda MYFC 38%, draw 35%, Montedio Yamagata 27%. The odds implied a high chance of a draw, but Fujieda MYFC's unbeaten home record and Montedio Yamagata's poor away results shift the balance slightly toward a home win. The head-to-head history, however, shows Montedio Yamagata can win on the road, so the draw remains a very realistic outcome. Overall, Fujieda MYFC are the more likely winners, but only by a narrow margin.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer odds of 2.50–2.52 for a Fujieda MYFC home win, 2.10–2.15 for the draw, and 2.92–3.00 for a Montedio Yamagata away victory. These prices indicate the draw is the most probable single result in the eyes of the market. Our Fujieda MYFC vs Montedio Yamagata prediction aligns closely: we expect a tight contest where the home side has the best chance to take all three points, but a stalemate is almost equally likely. Based on the stats, the safest betting tip is to back Fujieda MYFC or draw in the double chance market, or to consider under 2.5 total goals given both teams' recent low-scoring patterns.