Montedio Yamagata - Oita Trinita prediction 5 February 2036

This Oita Trinita vs Montedio Yamagata prediction covers the J2 League match on October 3, 2026 at 09:00. Based on the available data, Montedio Yamagata have a slight win probability edge over Oita Trinita, but the draw is the most likely single outcome. Bookmakers price this as a tight contest.

Team Form

Oita Trinita's last five results are D, D, D, D, L. They have drawn four of their last five matches in all competitions, with the only defeat a 2-0 loss to Roasso Kumamoto in the League Cup on September 2. Oita are winless in this five-match stretch.

Montedio Yamagata's last five results are L, W, L, L, W. They beat Sagan Tosu 2-0 on September 26 and Tochigi SC 1-0 on September 9, but lost to Yokohama F Marinos, Kataller Toyama, and Albirex Niigata. This form is mixed, with two wins and three losses.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head data shows Oita Trinita with 1 win, Montedio Yamagata with 6 wins, and 5 draws. In the last five H2H meetings listed, Oita Trinita won once (1-0 on June 7, 2026), while Montedio Yamagata won the other four matches, including a 3-0 and a 5-0 home win. Montedio Yamagata have dominated this fixture recently.

League Table Positions

In the J2 League standings, Montedio Yamagata are 8th with 12 points from 8 matches, having 4 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses, 10 goals scored, and 6 conceded. Oita Trinita are not among the top 12 teams listed in the standings data, which suggests they are further down the table. Montedio Yamagata also rank 4th in the home standings data, but this match is away for them; their away form is not in the top 8 away table, so no strong away advantage is confirmed.

Win Probability: Oita Trinita or Montedio Yamagata?

Based on odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league positions, the win probabilities are: Oita Trinita 29%, draw 38%, Montedio Yamagata 33%. The inverse odds normalization from the five bookmaker sets gave roughly home 33%, draw 38%, away 30%. We then adjusted the home win down and the away win up because Montedio Yamagata have a 6-1 head-to-head advantage and sit 8th in the league, while Oita are winless in five and outside the top 12. Home advantage for Oita Trinita keeps their probability from dropping further.

Conclusion: Montedio Yamagata are more likely to win than Oita Trinita, but the draw is the single most probable match outcome.

Oita Trinita vs Montedio Yamagata Prediction: Odds & Betting Tips

Bookmaker odds for the 1X2 market are available from multiple sources. Examples include: home Oita Trinita 2.65, draw 2.02, away Montedio Yamagata 2.82; home 2.60, draw 2.10, away 3.25; home 2.58, draw 2.94, away 2.36; home 2.55, draw 2.05, away 2.85; and home 2.50, draw 2.10, away 2.90. The away odds as low as 2.36 at one bookmaker indicate that some bookmakers see Montedio Yamagata as the favorite.

Final prediction: based on the stats, the best betting tips lean toward a draw or an away win for Montedio Yamagata. The match outcome is uncertain, but the data suggests avoiding a home win bet on Oita Trinita. Total goals could be low given Oita's four recent 1-1 and 0-0 draws.