Liverpool Montevideo Reserves - Montevideo Wanderers Reserves prediction 29 September 2026

Our Montevideo Wanderers Reserves vs Liverpool Montevideo Reserves prediction for the Primera Division Reserve League match on September 29, 2026, at 14:00 points to a closely contested affair. Montevideo Wanderers Reserves enter with a 35% win probability, Liverpool Montevideo Reserves hold a 30% chance, and the draw is rated at 35%. The away side holds a slight edge, but bookmaker oddss and recent meetings suggest no clear favourite.

Team Form

Liverpool Montevideo Reserves have shown mixed form at home with three wins from their last five outings (W, L, L, W, W cchronologically). Their most recent match was a 0-3 away loss to La Luz FC Reserves on Sep 21, but they bounced back with a 3-0 home victory over Colonn FC Reserve on Sep 15 and a 1-0 away win at Montevideo City Torque Reserves on Sep 7. Home defeats include a 1-2 loss to Deporttivo Maldonado Reserves on Aug 31.

Montevideo Wanderers Reserves have struggled on the road, managing just one win in their last five fixtures (D, W, D, L, L). A 1-1 draw at CA Progreso Reserves on Sep 21 followed a 2-1 home win over La Luz FC Reserves. Earlier, they drew 3-3 at Colon FC Reserve and lost 1-2 at home to Montevideo City Torque Reserve on Aug 31, before a 0-3 away defeat at Deportivo Maldonado Reserves on Aug 24. Their away form reads D, D, L in their last three travels.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical head-tohead between these reserve sides features 17 meetings:8 home wins, 4 draws, and5 away wins. The most recent contest on May 25, 2026 saw Montevideo Wanderers Reserves thrash Liverpool Montevideo Reserves 5-2 at home. Before that, Liverpool won 2-1 away on Sep22, 2025, and Montevideo Wanderers Reserves won 6-1 away on Mar 24, 2025. The last four H2H matches have produced two away wins, one home win, and one draw.

Win Probability: Montevideo Wanderers Reserves or Liverpool Montevideo Reserves?

Probability of outcomes ( based on odds, normalised to remove bookmaker margin, and adjusted for recent form and home advantage):

• Montevideo Wanderers Reserves win –35%
• Draw –35%
• Liverpool Montevideo Reserves win –30%

Away side Montevideo Wanderers Reserves are given a narrow edge at 35%, reflecting their slightly higher win probability from the averaged bookmaker odds. However, Liverpool Montevideo Reserves’ home advantage and recent three-wins-in-five run keep them firmly in contention, making the draw a very real possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Selected bookmaker odds for the 1X2 market show a wide range. A home win (Liverpool Montevideo Reserves) is priced between 2.90 and 3.40, the draw between 2.25 and 3.50, and an away win (Montevideo Wanderers Reserves) between 1.98 and 2.60. The best available odds imply that bookmakers see Montevideo Wanderers Reserves as a slight favourite, but the variation indicates uncertainty.

Prediction: Based on the stats, the most likely result is a draw, with Montevideo Wanderers Reserves having a minimal upper hand. A score draw or a tight away win are the two most probable scenarios. Backing the draw ‘no bet’ or underer 2.5 goals markets could offer value.