Toronto FC - Montreal Impact prediction 10 October 2026

The Toronto FC vs Montreal Impact prediction for this MLS clash on Oct 10, 2026, points to a home advantage at BMO Field. Based on odds, recent form, and head-to-head data, Toronto FC enters the match as the favorite with a 48% win probability, while Montreal Impact has a 22% chance and the draw sits at 30%.

Team Form

Toronto FC's last five matches (L, L, L, W, D) show a mixed run. Three consecutive away defeats against Nashville (2-0), Saint Louis City (3-1), and Orlando City (3-0) were followed by a 2-1 home win over Nashville and a 4-4 home draw with Chicago Fire. At BMO Field, they have recently looked more solid.

Montreal Impact's form is W, L, L, L, L. A 3-1 home win against FC Cincinnati was the only bright spot, with losses to Columbus Crew (0-2 at home), Colorado Rapids (1-0 away), Charlotte FC (1-2 at home), and Philadelphia Union (2-0 away). Away from home, they have lost both recent outings without scoring.

Head-to-Head Record

In 39 all-time meetings, Toronto FC has 14 wins, Montreal Impact 20, and 5 draws. The last five encounters highlight a tight rivalry:

• Jul 17, 2026: Montreal Impact 0-0 Toronto FC (Draw)
• Aug 31, 2025: Toronto FC 1-1 Montreal Impact (Draw)
• May 17, 2025: Montreal Impact 1-6 Toronto FC (Toronto win)
• May 1, 2025: Toronto FC 2-2 Montreal Impact (Draw, CSL)
• Aug 21, 2023: Toronto FC 2-3 Montreal Impact (Montreal win)

Three of the last five ended level, and both sides have one win each in that span.

League Table Positions

Neither team appears in the top 12 of the MLS overall standings, indicating both are in the lower half of the table. With the season nearing its end, every point is vital, adding extra intensity to this Canadian derby.

Win Probability: Toronto FC or Montreal Impact?

Our probability model, built on bookmaker odds and adjusted for form and home/away factors, gives Toronto FC a 48% chance of winning, the draw a 30% chance, and Montreal Impact a 22% chance. The odds implied a home win probability around 44%, but Toronto's slightly better recent home form (W, D) and Montreal's away struggles (two losses, no goals) tilt the balance further toward the hosts. The head-to-head record is balanced, but the home factor at BMO Field cannot be ignored.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' average odds are 1.91 for a Toronto FC win, 2.76 for the draw, and 3.38 for a Montreal Impact victory. The market clearly sees the home side as the favorite. Based on the stats, Toronto FC is the most likely winner, but the high draw probability and recent H2H draws suggest a tight contest. A 1-1 or 2-1 scoreline in favor of the hosts would align with the data.