Radomiak Radom - Motor Lublin prediction 12 October 2026

The Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin prediction for October 12, 2026, sees this Ekstraklasa clash as a tightly contested affair where Motor Lublin holds a slight edge with a 39% win probability, compared to Radomiak Radom's 34% chance and a 27% likelihood of a draw. The match kicks off at 17:00 at the Stadion im. Braci Czachorów in Radom, with both sides looking to improve their mid-table standing in Poland's top flight.

Team Form

Radomiak Radom's recent form has been mixed, recording two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five matches across all competitions. Their latest outing was a dominant 7-2 friendly victory over Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki on October 2. However, in their more recent Ekstraklasa fixtures, they suffered a heavy 5-1 defeat at Lech Poznan on September 20 and a 2-0 home loss against Piast Gliwice on September 14. A 0-0 draw at Widzew Lodz on September 5 and a 1-0 cup win at Korona Kielce II on September 1 complete the picture.

Motor Lublin come into this match with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five outings. Their most recent league game ended in a 0-0 home stalemate against Gornik Zabrze on September 19. Before that, they lost 2-1 at Rakow Czestochowa (September 11) and 3-2 at home to Legia Warszawa (September 5). A bright spot was a 3-0 home cup win over Legia Warszawa on September 1, followed by a 2-0 league loss against Piast Gliwice on August 29.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these sides is closely contested. In their seven previous meetings, Motor Lublin have won 3, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and there have been 2 draws. The most recent encounters have been especially tight: the last two league matches ended in draws — 1-1 on April 6, 2026, in Radom, and a 2-2 draw in Lublin on September 29, 2025. Radomiak Radom's last win was a 2-1 home loss on May 24, 2025, while Motor Lublin secured a 1-0 home victory on December 2, 2024.

League Table Positions

Neither team appears in the top-12 of the overall Ekstraklasa standings provided, suggesting they are in the lower half of the table. Specific rankings and points for Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin are not available in the data. Looking at the more granular home and away tables, Radomiak Radom is absent from the top-8 home form list, while Motor Lublin is also missing from the top-8 away form rankings, indicating both have struggled to put together top-half performances this season.

Win Probability: Radomiak Radom or Motor Lublin?

Based on a detailed analysis of available odds, recent form, and the head-to-head record, the calculated win probabilities are: Radomiak Radom has a 34% chance of winning, the draw is at 27%, and Motor Lublin has a 39% chance. The probabilities were derived by first normalizing the implied odds from the six available bookmakers, removing the overround. The average fair odds suggest a very balanced contest. However, Motor Lublin's superior overall head-to-head record (3 wins vs 2 for Radomiak) and their slightly better results when they last traveled to Radom give the away side a narrow probability advantage.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds reflect the expected closeness of this fixture. The highest available home win odds for Radomiak Radom are 2.62, while the best draw odds are 3.30, and the top away win odds for Motor Lublin stand at 2.88. The tight range of odds across the market, including a notably short 2.25 for a home win in one offering, confirms there is no clear favorite. Taking into account Motor Lublin's slight edge in head-to-head meetings and recent head-to-head resilience, the final Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin prediction leans toward an away win or a draw, though a bet on either side carries significant risk given the even statistical profile.