Motor Lublin - Rakow Czestochowa prediction 27 October 2026

Motor Lublin vs Rakow Czestochowa prediction for the Cup match on October 27, 2026 (16:30). Our win probability analysis gives Motor Lublin a 34% chance of winning, a draw 34%, and Rakow Czestochowa a 32% chance. The bookmakers see Motor Lublin as the slight favorite, but the head-to-head record points to an even contest.

Team Form

Motor Lublin’s last five results: D (2-2 vs Zaglebie Lubin, Oct 23), W (3-2 vs Slask Wroclaw, Oct 17), W (3-2 at Radomiak Radom, Oct 12), D (0-0 vs Gornik Zabrze, Sep 19), L (1-2 at Rakow Czestochowa, Sep 11). That’s two wins, two draws, one loss.

Rakow Czestochowa’s recent form: L (1-2 at Wisla Krakow, Oct 24), W (2-1 at Wieczysta Krakow, Oct 16), L (1-4 vs GKS Katowice, Oct 9), W (4-1 vs Polonia Bytom, friendly, Oct 2), L (2-3 at Korona Kielce, Sep 19). Two wins, three losses in that spell.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met five times previously, with Motor Lublin yet to win (0W, 2D, 3L). The most recent clash was on September 11, 2026, in the Ekstraklasa, where Rakow Czestochowa won 2-1 at home. The last Cup meeting was on March 1, 2023 – Rakow won 3-0 in Lublin.

Win Probability: Motor Lublin or Rakow Czestochowa?

Based on the average of all available pre‑match odds (1X2), we calculated implied probabilities and then normalized them to remove the bookmaker margin. The raw odds‑implied chances were: Motor Lublin 36.2%, draw 34.3%, Rakow 29.5%. However, the head‑to‑head record (0 wins for Motor Lublin in 5 games) and Rakow’s historical dominance require an adjustment.

After weighing form and H2H, our final win probability for this Cup tie is: Motor Lublin win – 34%, draw – 34%, Rakow Czestochowa win – 32%. There is almost nothing to separate the teams; the most likely single outcome is a draw, but any of the three results would not be a surprise.

Odds & Match Prediction

Looking at the odds from multiple bookmakers, the average price for a Motor Lublin home win sits around 2.30–2.45, the draw is offered between 2.25 and 3.70, and an away win for Rakow is around 2.72–3.10. The betting market has Motor Lublin as the marginal favourite, but the short draw odds reflect the expectation of a tight, low‑scoring affair.

Our match prediction: with the win probabilities almost identical and the H2H showing Rakow’s strength, the most cautious call is a draw. However, home advantage could tip the balance slightly in favour of Motor Lublin. We expect a closely fought cup tie with few goals.