Mozambique - Sudan prediction 29 September 2026

The Mozambique vs Sudan prediction for September 29, 2026, in the African Cup of Nations sees the home side as a narrow favourite. Based on the latest odds and recent form, Mozambique have a 43% chance of winning, the draw stands at 40%, and Sudan have a 17% chance.

Team Form

Mozambique

Mozambique are without a win in their last five outings (D2 L3). They earned back-to-back 1-1 draws against Senegal in the African Cup of Nations on September 25, but previously suffered three defeats: 0-1 to Indonesia (friendly), 1-4 to Oman (friendly), and 0-4 to Nigeria in the African Cup of Nations. That run shows defensive frailties and a lack of victories.

Sudan

Sudan’s recent record is mixed (W2 D1 L2). They started their African Cup of Nations campaign with a 1-0 win over Ethiopia on September 25, drew 0-0 with Qatar in a May friendly, lost 1-3 to Senegal and 0-2 to Burkina Faso in the tournament, but also beat Equatorial Guinea 1-0 in late 2025. The win against Ethiopia gives them a slight momentum edge over Mozambique.

Head-to-Head Record

There are no previous meetings between Mozambique and Sudan in our database. This will be the first competitive clash for which head-to-head data is available.

Win Probability: Mozambique or Sudan?

We have calculated the outcome probabilities using bookmaker odds (inverse implied probability, normalized to remove the margin) and adjusted them for recent form and home advantage. Mozambique have a 43% chance of winning, the draw has a 40% probability, and Sudan sit at 17%. The odds market prices Mozambique as the favourite, but their poor form (no win in five) and Sudan’s recent result keep the draw probability high. Home advantage gives Mozambique the slight edge, but this is a match where a stalemate is a realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available pre-match odds (1X2) reflect the tight nature of this fixture. Home win odds range from 1.87 to 1.98, draw odds from 1.82 to 3.08, and an away win from 4.33 to 5.25. Bookmakers see Mozambique as the favourite, but the narrow margin and low draw quotes suggest a game that could easily finish level. Based on the stats and the win probabilities, the safest prediction is a double chance on Mozambique or draw, or a draw no bet on the home side. However, with a 43% win expectancy, a Mozambique win remains the most likely single outcome, though confidence is not high.