Toukolan Teras - MPS Atletico Malmi prediction 11 September 2026

For the Toukolan Teras vs MPS Atletico Malmi prediction, the Kolmonen match on Sep 11, 2026, at 15:00 points to a home favorite. Based on odds, recent form, and head-to-head data, Toukolan Teras holds a 45% win probability, the draw stands at 30%, and MPS Atletico Malmi trails at 25%.

Team Form

Toukolan Teras comes into this match with a mixed run from their last five games: D, D, L, D, W. Most recently, they played a 3-3 away draw at VJS Vantaa 2 on Sep 07, and a 2-2 draw at Atlantis FC/PM on Aug 20. A 2-0 away loss at TiPS Vantaa interrupted the rhythm, but they steadied with a 1-1 home draw against Pallo-Pojat Juniorit 2 and a 3-1 home win over Pakkalan Palloseura on Aug 01. The team shows resilience but struggles to turn draws into wins.

MPS Atletico Malmi’s last five results read W, L, L, W, D. They won 2-0 away at Pallo-Pojat Juniorit 2 on Sep 03, then suffered a 1-3 home defeat to TiPS Vantaa on Aug 29 and a heavy 0-5 away loss at LPS Laajasalon on Aug 22. A 2-1 home win against VJS Vantaa 2 on Aug 13 and a 1-1 away draw at FC Kontu on Aug 07 complete the picture. Consistency is a clear issue for the away side.

Head-to-Head Record

The last two meetings between these teams give Toukolan Teras a clear edge: one win and one draw, with MPS Atletico Malmi yet to win. The most recent league clash on Jun 05, 2026 saw Toukolan Teras win 3-0 away. Earlier, on Mar 08, 2026, they drew 0-0 in a Cup fixture. The H2H suggests Toukolan Teras knows how to handle this opponent.

Win Probability: Toukolan Teras or MPS Atletico Malmi?

We calculate the outcome probabilities using the available odds, adjusted for form and head-to-head record. The average bookmaker odds from three sources are approximately 2.09 for a home win, 3.17 for a draw, and 3.32 for an away win. After removing the overround, the fair odds imply a home win probability near 43.7%, a draw around 28.8%, and an away win at 27.5%. Factoring in Toukolan Teras’s home advantage and their undefeated H2H record (1 win, 1 draw), we raise the home chances slightly and lower the away side’s. Thus, Toukolan Teras has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and MPS Atletico Malmi has a 25% chance. Overall, a home win is the single most likely outcome, but a draw is a very real possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers show a spread of opinions. The most favorable home odds sit at 1.75, while others go up to 2.38. Draw odds range between 2.75 and 3.95, and away odds from 3.20 to 3.40. This variance signals some uncertainty, but the overall market leans toward Toukolan Teras as the favorite.

Our prediction: based on the stats, Toukolan Teras is the more likely winner. Their H2H dominance and home pitch give them the edge, although the high number of recent draws in their form warns that a stalemate cannot be ruled out. A 1-0 or 2-1 home win fits the data pattern, while a cautious approach would also consider the draw.