MTK Budapest - Kisvarda prediction 5 September 2026

This MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda prediction analyses the NB I clash on Sep 05, 2026, at 15:30. MTK Budapest are the favorites with a 48% win probability, Kisvarda have just a 24% chance, and the draw sits at 28%. All stats used come from the official league data.

Team Form

MTK Budapest’s last five league games show a mixed run: D, W, D, L, D. They drew 2-2 away at Debreceni VSC, beat Nyiregyhaza 2-1 at home, drew 1-1 at Ujpest, lost 2-3 at home to Puskas Akademia, and drew 3-3 at Budapest Honved. At home, they have 2 wins and 1 loss from three fixtures, scoring 7 goals and conceding 4. Overall, MTK average 2.17 goals per game (13 in 6 matches), revealing a potent attack.

Kisvarda’s recent form is D, D, L, L, W. They drew 1-1 at home against Gyori ETO, drew 0-0 at home with Debreceni VSC, lost 1-2 away at Nyiregyhaza, lost 2-4 at home to Ujpest, and then won 2-0 away at Puskas Akademia. Kisvarda’s away record stands at one win and one loss, with 3 goals for and 2 against. Their overall scoring rate is just 1.17 goals per match (7 in 6 games), highlighting struggles in creating chances.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last 15 meetings between these sides, the record is perfectly balanced: MTK Budapest have 6 wins, Kisvarda have 6 wins, and there have been 3 draws. However, recent history favors the home side. MTK have won the last two encounters – a 2-1 home victory in April 2026 and a 3-2 away win in January 2026. The meeting before that ended in a 4-0 home thrashing for MTK in September 2025. All five of the most recent H2H matches have produced at least three goals, suggesting a high-scoring trend.

League Table Positions

After 6 rounds, MTK Budapest sit 4th in the NB I with 9 points (2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss). They have scored 13 goals and conceded 10. At home, they rank 5th with 2 wins and 1 loss, netting 7 and conceding 4. Kisvarda are 10th with 6 points (1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses), 7 goals scored and 8 conceded. In the away standings, Kisvarda sit 7th with 1 win and 1 loss from two away games. The table clearly shows MTK’s superiority in both overall points and home form.

Win Probability: MTK Budapest or Kisvarda?

We calculate the following win probabilities for this match: MTK Budapest have a 48% chance of winning, the draw has a 28% probability, and Kisvarda have a 24% chance. These numbers are derived from the average bookmaker odds (home 1.97, draw 2.60, away 3.40) after removing the margin, then adjusted upward for MTK based on their home advantage, higher league position, and dominant recent head-to-head record. Kisvarda’s inconsistent form and lower table rank reduce their chance to 24%.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds range from 1.90 to 2.05 for a home win, 2.35 to 3.70 for the draw, and 3.30 to 3.50 for an away win. Bookmakers clearly see MTK Budapest as the favorite. Our MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda prediction: based on the stats, MTK Budapest are the most likely winners. The home win is the safest bet, but the draw probability is notable at 28%, reflecting MTK’s tendency to share points in recent away games. Kisvarda’s away performances have been mixed, so an upset cannot be ruled out entirely, but the numbers strongly favor a home victory.