MTK Budapest - Vasas prediction 16 October 2026

The MTK Budapest vs Vasas prediction for October 16, 2026, sees the visitors as the more probable winners. The match kicks off at 19:00 local time in the Hungarian NB I, with Vasas holding a 40% win probability based on current form and table position, while MTK Budapest have just a 30% chance and the draw is at 30%.

Team Form

MTK Budapest come into this fixture struggling for consistency. Their last five matches across all competitions show one win, one draw, and three losses (L, L, W, L, D). The solo victory was a 2-0 cup win at Mezokovesd-Zsory; in the league they have been beaten by Paksi SE (0-3), Gyori ETO (1-2) and Kisvarda (1-2), and managed a 2-2 draw at Debreceni VSC.

>Vasas, in contrast, have collected two wins, one draw, and two defeats in their last five outings (D, W, W, L, L). Away from home, they recorded a 4-2 win at Debreceni VSC and a 3-2 home success against Nyiregyhaza, but also suffered losses at Ujpest (1-3) and at home to Puskas Akademia (0-1).

Head-to-Head Record

>The head-to-head record favours Vasas, with 5 wins to MTK Budapest’s 3 from their eight meetings. No draw has ever been recorded. The last two competitive clashes in NB II saw MTK Budapest win 3-1 at home, then Vasas lose 1-4 away – but that was back in 2019 and 2020.

League Table Positions

>Vasas sit top of the NB I table after 9 matches with 15 points (4 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses), scoring 18 goals and allowing 12. MTTK Budapest are 9th with just 9 points (2-3-4), have conceded 17 and sit only three points above the bottom three. At home, MTK Budapest have won 2 and lost 3 of 5 games, while Vasas have taken 7 points from 4 away trips (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss).

Win Probability: MTK Budapest or Vasas?

>Based on bookmakers’ odds and adjusted for recent form, league position, and head-to-head record, the probabilities for this match are: MTK Budapest 30%, draw 30%, Vasas 40%. The odds implied a close contest, but Vasas’s superior league ranking and solid away form push them ahead. MTK Budapest’s poor home record and overall 9th place make an upset less likely, though the home advantage keeps them within touching distance.

Odds & Match Prediction

>Bookmakers see this as a tight encounter: average odds give MTK Budapest at 2.33, the draw at 2.42, and Vasas at 2.81. These figures suggest the home side is a marginal favourite, but the data-driven analysis points to value on the away win. Our prediction: Vasas to win, though the high probability of a draw means a stalemate cannot be ruled out.