Arouca - Nacional Madeira prediction 1 November 2026

The Arouca vs Nacional Madeira prediction for Nov 1, 2026, points towards a home victory at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca in the Primeira Liga. Based on all available stats, Arouca has a 58% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Nacional Madeira has a 17% chance. The match kicks off at 15:30.

Team Form

Arouca comes into this match in solid shape. From their last five matches, their form reads W, D, W, D, L. Most recently, they beat Alverca 1-0 away on Oct 24, and before that drew 3-3 away at CF Os Belenenses in the Cup. At home, they secured a 1-0 win over Estrela Amadora on Oct 11.

Nacional Madeira's recent results are worrying for their fans: W, L, L, L, L. They did manage a 1-0 home win against Braga on Oct 25, but that snapped a run of four consecutive defeats. Losses to AD Sanjoanense (0-1) in the Cup, Rio Ave (2-3), Famalicao (0-4) and Alverca (1-3) exposed serious defensive vulnerabilities.

Head-to-Head Record

The H2H record heavily favours Nacional Madeira overall, with 6 wins to Arouca's 3, alongside 3 draws. However, recent history shows a strong trend toward the home side. In the last meeting on Feb 21, 2026, Arouca crushed Nacional Madeira 3-0 at home in the Primeira Liga. Before that, Arouca won 2-1 away on Sep 20, 2025, and also won 2-1 away on Feb 1, 2025. Arouca have won the last three head-to-head encounters, all in 2025 and 2026.

League Table Positions

In the overall Primeira Liga standings, Arouca sit 5th with 17 points from 9 matches (5 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses), scoring 12 and conceding 7. Nacional Madeira are not in the top 12 of the provided table. At home, Arouca are strong: 4th place with 9 points from 4 games (3 wins, 1 loss), scoring 8 and conceding just 3. Away from home, Arouca rank 5th with 8 points from 5 matches. Nacional Madeira's standing data is not available in the provided table, suggesting a lower ranking.

Win Probability: Arouca or Nacional Madeira?

Bookmakers see Arouca as the clear favourite, with best odds of 1.75 for a home win. Converting the implied probabilities from the best available odds (1.75 for Arouca, 2.25 for the draw, 4.00 for Nacional Madeira) and normalizing them to remove the bookmaker margin gives a base probability of roughly 54% for an Arouca win, 27% for a draw, and 19% for a Nacional Madeira win. Adjusting for Arouca's superior league position, strong home form (3 wins in last 4 home games), and the fact they have won the last three H2H meetings, while Nacional Madeira have lost four of their last five games, we shift the probabilities further in favour of the home side. Arouca has a 58% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Nacional Madeira has a 17% chance. Arouca are more likely to win this Primeira Liga clash.

Odds & Match Prediction

Looking at the bookmakers' odds, Arouca are priced between 1.75 and 1.83 for the home win, the draw is at 2.25–2.30, and an away win for Nacional Madeira is at 4.00–4.33. Based on the stats, the form guide and the H2H record, an Arouca win is the most probable outcome. The home side's strong defence, conceding only 3 goals in 4 home league games, should be key against a Nacional Madeira side struggling for consistency. The match prediction is a home win for Arouca.