Nakhon Ratchasima FC - Muang Loei United prediction 13 October 2026

The Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muang Loei United prediction for the Division 2 match on Oct 13, 2026 at 13:00 shows Muang Loei United with a 40% win probability, while the draw and Nakhon Ratchasima FC each sit at 30%. Despite bookmaker odds pointing to a home favourite, form and head-to-head numbers tilt the probabilities toward the away side.

Team Form

Nakhon Ratchasima FC are winless in their last five outings (D L D L D). They managed three draws – 1-1 against BEC Police Tero Sasana, 1-1 with Mahasarakham United, and 2-2 at Nakhon Pathom – but fell 1-2 to Chainat FC and 1-2 to Chiangmai FC. The side has struggled to turn draws into wins.

Muang Loei United enter this match in better shape (D D W W L). They beat Phrae United 2-0 and Chainat FC 3-0, drew 2-2 with Pattaya Dolphins United and 1-1 at Songkhla United, then lost 0-1 to BEC Police Tero Sasana. The back-to-back clean-sheet wins highlight their capability.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record strongly favours Muang Loei United. In six previous meetings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have never won (0 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats). The most recent clash on Jan 21, 2024 ended 3-2 for Muang Loei United, and the overall goal trend shows Muang Loei United regularly finding the net against this opponent.

League Table Positions

Muang Loei United sit 6th in the Division 2 overall standings with 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; goals 8:4). Nakhon Ratchasima FC do not appear in the provided top‑12 table, indicating a lower league position. The table gap reinforces Muang Loei United’s edge.

Win Probability: Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Muang Loei United?

Based on all available data, we calculate these outcome probabilities:

• Nakhon Ratchasima FC win – 30%
• Draw – 30%
• Muang Loei United win – 40%

Bookmaker odds (best available: 2.14 home, 3.27 draw, 3.27 away) originally implied a 43% home win chance after margin removal. However, we adjusted the numbers downward for the home side and upward for the away side because of Muang Loei United’s dominant head-to-head record (4 wins in 6 meetings) and Nakhon Ratchasima FC’s ongoing five‑match winless run. The combined evidence points to Muang Loei United as the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are not unanimous. The odds ranges across markets are: home win 1.75 to 2.14, draw 2.10 to 3.40, away win 3.27 to 3.90. The shortest home odds imply a favourite tag for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, but our deeper analysis of form and H2H suggests the value lies elsewhere. Our Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Muang Loei United betting tips point to an away win as the most probable outcome, with a predicted scoreline in line with Muang Loei United’s recent away form.