Borac Cacak - Napredak Krusevac prediction 24 October 2026

Welcome to this Borac Cacak vs Napredak Krusevac prediction for the Prva Liga match on Oct 24 at 15:00. Our win probability analysis gives Borac Cacak a 38% chance to win, with the draw at 30% and Napredak Krusevac at 32%. The bookmakers' odds, team form and head-to-head record point to a tight contest.

Team Form

Borac Cacak's last five matches: W, L, D, W, L. At home they beat FK Jedinstvo UB 3-1 (Oct 10) and Teleoptik 2-1 (Sep 20), drew 2-2 against league leaders TSC Backa Topola (Sep 26), but lost 1-2 to Metalac Gornji Milanovac (Sep 16). Their away form shows a 1-3 defeat at Javor Ivanjica (Oct 4).

Napredak Krusevac arrives undefeated in five: W, D, W, D, D. They kept clean sheets in four of those matches, winning 1-0 at home against Dubocica (Oct 17) and 3-0 at home against Loznica (Oct 5), with 0-0 draws against Proleter Zrenjanin 023 (away, Oct 11), Vozdovac (away, Sep 29) and Sumadija Kragujevac (home, Sep 27). Defensive solidity makes them hard to beat.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met seven times. Borac Cacak has never won a fixture, with three draws and four Napredak Krusevac victories. The most recent meetings: two 0-4 Cup defeats for Borac in October 2018, and a3-3 SuperLiga draw in December2017. The historical record heavily favours the away side.

League Table Positions

Borac Cacak sits 2nd in the Prva Liga with28 points from13 matches (9 wins, 1 draw,3 losses). At home they have played6, winning4, drawing1 and losing1, collecting13 points. Napredak Krusevac is6th with21 points from14 matches (6 wins,3 draws,5 losses). Their away record:6 points from6 games, indicating they pick up results on the road but are not dominant.

Win Probability: Borac Cacak or Napredak Krusevac?

Using the inverse of the odds (2.02 home,3.00 draw,3.40 away) and removing the bookmaker margin, we get base probabilities: Borac Cacak44.1%, draw29.7%, Napredak Krusevac26.2%. Adjusted for the strong head-to-head edge for Napredak (4 away wins,3 draws,0 Borac wins) and the away side's current five-match unbeaten run, the home win probability drops while away and draw chances rise. The final estimation: Borac Cacak has a38% chance of winning, the draw is at30%, and Napredak Krusevac has a32% chance. The home side still holds a slight advantage thanks to the league table advantage and home form, but the match is extremely close.

Odds & Match Prediction

Pre-match odds show Borac Cacak at2.02, the draw at3.00, and Napredak Krusevac at3.40. Bookmakers view Borac as the favourite, but the gap is narrow. Based on the stats, a draw is a very realistic outcome considering the head-to-head history (three drawn encounters) and Napredak's recent run of three draws in five. Our prediction: this is likely to be a low-scoring, cagey affair. The value may lie with the draw or a cautious bet on Napredak Krusevac double chance.