Napredak Krusevac - Loznica prediction 5 October 2026

Napredak Krusevac vs Loznica prediction for the Prva Liga match on October 5, 2026, at 15:00. Based on our analysis, Napredak Krusevac has a 38% win probability, while Loznica is close behind at 34%, with a draw at 28%. This is a tight contest between two mid-table sides.

Team Form

Napredak Krusevac

Napredak Krusevac's recent form is concerning. In their last five matches, they have recorded two draws, one win, and two losses (D, D, W, L, L). They drew 0-0 away at Vozdovac on September 29 and 0-0 at home against Sumadija Kragujevac on September 27. Their only win came away at FK Derdap Golubac (2-0) on September 23. However, they suffered heavy home defeats: 1-4 against Smederevo 1924 on September 21 and 1-2 against Vrsac on September 16. Overall, Napredak has scored just 10 goals in 11 league matches, the second-lowest in the division, while conceding 15.

Loznica

Loznica comes into this match in better shape. Their last five results are two wins, two draws, and one loss (W, W, D, L, D). They beat Spartak Subotica 2-0 at home on September 28 and won 3-2 away at FK Jedinstvo UB on September 21. A 2-2 home draw with Javor Ivanjica on September 17 and a 1-1 home draw with Teleoptik on September 6 show resilience. The only setback was a 0-4 away loss to TSC Backa Topola on September 12. Loznica has scored 16 goals and conceded 16 in 11 league games, indicating a balanced but slightly leaky defense.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met twice recently, with each side winning at home. On May 17, 2025, Napredak Krusevac won 2-0 at home. Earlier, on October 27, 2024, Loznica triumphed 5-0 at home. The head-to-head record stands at one win each, with no draws. Home advantage has clearly played a decisive role in this fixture.

League Table Positions

In the Prva Liga overall standings, Loznica sits 9th with 15 points from 11 matches (3 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses), while Napredak Krusevac is 11th with 14 points (4 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses). At home, Napredak ranks 7th with 9 points from 6 games (3 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). Loznica's away record is 8th with 8 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). The gap between the teams is minimal, and both have been inconsistent.

Win Probability: Napredak Krusevac or Loznica?

After normalizing bookmaker odds and adjusting for recent form and head-to-head trends, we calculate the following win probabilities: Napredak Krusevac 38%, Draw 28%, Loznica 34%. The initial odds implied a 40.9% home win chance, but Napredak's poor home form (two consecutive home losses) and Loznica's solid away performances reduce that edge. Loznica's probability is boosted by their better recent results and fewer defeats overall. The draw probability reflects the tight nature of the contest. In conclusion, while Napredak is the nominal favorite, Loznica has a strong chance to take at least a point.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer the following odds for the 1X2 market: Napredak Krusevac win at 2.33, draw at 3.38, and Loznica win at 3.08. These odds indicate a close match with a slight preference for the home side. Based on the stats, our prediction is a cautious home win for Napredak Krusevac, but the high probability of a draw or away win makes this a risky bet. A "double chance" bet on Napredak or Draw could be a safer option. Expect a low-scoring affair given Napredak's struggles in attack.