Johvi FC Phoenix - JK Narva Trans II prediction 11 October 2026

The Johvi FC Phoenix vs JK Narva Trans II prediction for October 11, 2026, points to a very tight Esiliiga B contest in which JK Narva Trans II holds a slight edge. Based on current form and head-to-head data, JK Narva Trans II has a 40% chance of winning, Johvi FC Phoenix sits at 33%, and a draw is a 27% probability. Read on for our full betting tips, team form analysis, and odds breakdown.

Team Form

Johvi FC Phoenix enter this match with an impressive run of recent results: they have won four of their last five outings (W, W, W, L, W). Their attack has been firing, netting 15 goals in those five matches while conceding 13 in some high-scoring affairs. The home side will be confident after their high-scoring victories against Tabasalu Jk Charma (3-2) and Tallinna Kalev II (4-3).

JK Narva Trans II, however, are in even better shape. The away side boasts a perfect record over their last five games (W, W, W, W, W), scoring 7 goals and conceding just 2. They are on a remarkable run of clean sheets and narrow victories, highlighted by wins over Tallinna JK Legion (2-1) and Tallinna Kalev II (2-1). This defensive solidity makes them a formidable opponent.

Head-to-Head Record

In their last eight meetings, the head-to-head record is perfectly balanced with Johvi FC Phoenix winning 3, JK Narva Trans II winning 3, and 2 draws. The most recent clash on August 15, 2026, saw JK Narva Trans II claim a narrow 1-0 victory at home. Earlier this season, on May 28, the two sides played out a 1-1 draw. Looking further back, Johvi FC Phoenix secured a convincing 4-2 home win on March 28, 2026, proving they can dominate this fixture. The record shows no clear psychological advantage for either team.

League Table Positions

In the Esiliiga B standings, Johvi FC Phoenix (listed as '1976 Phoenix') occupy 3rd place with 54 points from 30 matches. Their home form is a major strength, with 11 wins from 13 games at their own ground. JK Narva Trans II (listed as 'Narva U21') are league leaders with 63 points from 30 matches, having secured 20 wins. Their away record is also strong, sitting 2nd in the away standings with 22 points from 15 games. The 9-point gap between them gives the visitors a clear statistical advantage.

Win Probability: Johvi FC Phoenix or JK Narva Trans II?

After analyzing all available stats, the calculated win probabilities are: JK Narva Trans II has a 40% chance of winning, Johvi FC Phoenix has a 33% chance, and the draw is at 27%. This calculation is based on the bookmakers' odds, which are very evenly matched. The implied probabilities from the sharpest odds (home 2.62, draw 2.80, away 2.50) were normalized to remove the margin, and then adjusted upward for JK Narva Trans II due to their perfect five-match winning run and superior league position. Home advantage for Johvi FC Phoenix, who have a near-perfect home record with 11 wins from 13, keeps them close and prevents the away side from being a clear favorite. JK Narva Trans II is therefore more likely to win, but it is a fixture that could easily produce a draw.

Odds & Match Prediction

The match odds from various bookmakers show a very open game. Odds for a Johvi FC Phoenix home win range from 2.50 to 2.78, a draw is around 2.72 to 4.20, and an away win for JK Narva Trans II is between 2.10 and 2.50. Bookmakers see JK Narva Trans II as a marginal favorite based on the tight pricing. Based on the stats, the most likely match outcome is an away victory, but a punt on the draw also offers value considering the balanced head-to-head record and the visitors' recent trend of narrow, single-goal wins.