Uribelarrea FC - Nautico Hacoaj prediction 22 September 2026

The Uribelarrea FC vs Nautico Hacoaj prediction for their Torneo Promocional Amateur clash on Sep 22 at 19:00 sees the home side as a slight favorite. Based on the odds, recent form, and league standings, Uribelarrea FC has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Nautico Hacoaj has a 25% chance.

Team Form

Uribelarrea FC's last five matches show a pattern of draws: D, D, D, W, L. They have struggled to turn tight games into victories, with three consecutive draws before a win and a loss. Nautico Hacoaj's recent form reads D, L, L, D, D. They are without a win in their last five outings, suffering two defeats and settling for three draws.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once before, on Sep 15, 2026, just a week prior to this fixture. That match ended in a 2-2 draw, with Nautico Hacoaj as the home side. The head-to-head record stands at 0 wins for Uribelarrea FC, 1 draw, and 0 wins for Nautico Hacoaj.

League Table Positions

In the Torneo Promocional Amateur overall standings, Uribelarrea FC sits 5th with 29 points from 16 matches (8 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses). Nautico Hacoaj is 8th with 24 points from 14 matches (7 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses). At home, Uribelarrea FC ranks 5th with 14 points from 8 games, while Nautico Hacoaj's away form places them 8th with 13 points from 7 matches. Uribelarrea FC has a better defensive record on the road, conceding only 3 goals in 8 away games.

Win Probability: Uribelarrea FC or Nautico Hacoaj?

Uribelarrea FC has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Nautico Hacoaj has a 25% chance. This calculation is based on the inverse of the best available odds (home 2.75, draw 2.25, away 3.10), normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, and adjusted for Uribelarrea FC's home advantage and slightly superior league position. The high draw probability reflects both teams' recent form, with Uribelarrea FC drawing three of their last five and Nautico Hacoaj drawing three of their last five, as well as their only H2H meeting ending in a stalemate.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer odds of 2.75 for a Uribelarrea FC win, 2.25 for the draw, and 3.10 for a Nautico Hacoaj victory. The low draw odds indicate the market expects a tight, low-scoring affair. Based on the stats, a draw appears the most likely outcome, but Uribelarrea FC's home status gives them a narrow edge. The prediction is a cautious one: Uribelarrea FC to win or draw, with under 2.5 total goals looking probable given both teams' recent scoring records.