Nautico PE - Gremio Novorizontino SP prediction 8 October 2026

The Nautico PE vs Gremio Novorizontino SP prediction for this Serie B clash on October 8, 2026, at 23:30 points to an away win as the most likely outcome. Based on the latest odds, form, and league table, Gremio Novorizontino SP has a 40% chance of winning, while Nautico PE sits at 25% and the draw at 35%.

Team Form

Nautico PE's last five matches: D, W, L, D, L. They managed just one win in that run, a 3-1 home victory over Sport Recife PE, but suffered defeats to Cuiaba MT (0-3) and America Mineiro MG (1-2). The two draws came against Fortaleza CE (1-1) and Operario PR (3-3).

Gremio Novorizontino SP's recent form reads W, D, L, D, W. They beat Goias GO 3-0 at home and Botafogo SP 3-1 away, drew 0-0 with Sao Bernardo SP and 1-1 with Cuiaba MT, and lost 1-2 to Ceara CE. The away side has collected 8 points from the last 15 available, showing slightly better consistency.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met three times previously. The head-to-head record is perfectly balanced: 1 win for Nautico PE, 1 win for Gremio Novorizontino SP, and 1 draw. The most recent encounter, on June 14, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw at Gremio Novorizontino SP's ground. Earlier meetings saw a 6-0 home win for Gremio Novorizontino SP in 2022 and a 3-1 home win for Nautico PE in the same year.

League Table Positions

Gremio Novorizontino SP sits 3rd in the Serie B overall standings with 54 points from 31 matches (15 wins, 9 draws, 7 losses). They have scored 52 goals and conceded 27, boasting the best goal difference in the top six. Their away form is also strong: 3rd in the away table with 23 points from 15 games (6 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses). Nautico PE is not in the top 12 of the league table, indicating a lower position and a significant gap in points and performance compared to their opponents.

Win Probability: Nautico PE or Gremio Novorizontino SP?

After removing the bookmaker margin from the 1X2 odds and adjusting for recent form, head-to-head, and league standings, the win probabilities are: Nautico PE 25%, draw 35%, Gremio Novorizontino SP 40%. The away side's higher league position, better recent results, and solid away record give them the edge. Nautico PE's home advantage is not enough to outweigh the gap in quality. Therefore, Gremio Novorizontino SP is the more likely winner, but a draw remains a strong possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds (1X2) for this match: Nautico PE win at 3.20, draw at 2.20, and Gremio Novorizontino SP win at 2.62. These odds reflect the draw as the most probable single outcome according to the market, but the away win is priced closely. Based on the stats, our Nautico PE vs Gremio Novorizontino SP prediction leans towards an away victory, with the draw as a sensible cover. The total goals market could also be of interest given both teams' recent scoring records.