Nea Salamis - Pafos FC prediction 26 October 2026

The Nea Salamis vs Pafos FC prediction for October 26, 2026, points towards an away victory in the Cyprus 1st Division. Based on the latest form, head-to-head dominance, and league table positions, Pafos FC enters this match as the clear favorite with an estimated 61% win probability. The game, scheduled for 16:00 at Nea Salamis's home ground, is expected to be a challenging encounter for the struggling hosts.

Team Form

Nea Salamis's recent form shows inconsistency with two wins and three losses in their last five matches (W, L, L, W, L). Their latest result was a convincing 4-0 cup victory against Apea Akrotiriou on October 21. However, their league form has been worrying, with defeats against Apollon Limassol (4-2) and APOEL Nicosia (2-1), before which they managed a strong 3-0 home win against Anorthosis Famagusta.

Pafos FC's form reads two draws, one loss, one win, and one loss in their last five (D, D, L, W, L). They are coming off back-to-back draws: 1-1 against Riga FC in the UEFA Conference League and a 0-0 stalemate with APOEL Nicosia in the league. Prior to that, a 3-1 defeat to Atalanta in Europe and a 3-1 away league win at Anorthosis Famagusta show their mixed results against strong opposition.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Pafos FC. In 21 meetings, Pafos has 12 wins, Nea Salamis has 8, and there has been 1 draw. The last five encounters underscore this dominance, with Pafos winning four and one ending in a draw. In their most recent league clash on December 16, 2024, Pafos won 2-0 away at Nea Salamis. The most emphatic result came in the Cup on February 28, 2024, when Pafos demolished Nea Salamis 5-0 at this same venue.

League Table Positions

In the 1st Division standings, Pafos FC sits in 7th place with 11 points from 6 matches (3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). They have a strong defensive record, conceding only 3 goals. Nea Salamis is in 12th place with just 4 points from 6 games (1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses), having conceded 15 goals. Notably, Pafos's away form is perfect this season, with 3 wins from 3 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 1, placing them 2nd in the away table.

Win Probability: Nea Salamis or Pafos FC?

Based on a comprehensive analysis of odds, form, and head-to-head stats, the win probabilities are as follows: Nea Salamis has a 19% chance of winning, the draw is at 20%, and Pafos FC has a 61% chance of winning. The calculation starts with the bookmaker odds (best available: 5.55 home, 4.23 draw, 1.60 away), whose implied probabilities are adjusted for the margin and then weighted with Pafos's perfect away record and a 4-0-1 head-to-head run in the last five meetings. The home advantage for Nea Salamis is factored in but is largely negated by their poor defensive form and low league position.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Pafos FC as the strong favorite. The available prematch odds show an away win ranging from 1.60 to 2.05, with the best price for a Pafos win at 1.60. The draw is priced around 2.30 to 4.23, and a Nea Salamis home win is a long shot at 4.20 to 5.55. Based on the stats, the prediction leans towards an away win. Pafos FC's perfect away record this season and historical dominance make them the most likely winner. A bet on 'Pafos FC to win' aligns with the statistical probabilities.