Cambuur Leeuwarden - NEC Nijmegen prediction 12 September 2026

The Cambuur Leeuwarden vs NEC Nijmegen prediction for the Eredivisie match on Sep 12 at 19:00 points towards an away win. Based on the latest odds and team form, NEC Nijmegen enters this fixture as the clear favorite with a calculated win probability of 52%, while Cambuur Leeuwarden has a 24% chance and the draw sits at 24%.

Team Form

Cambuur Leeuwarden's recent form is poor. In their last five matches, they have recorded four losses and one draw. They drew 2-2 away at Telstar on Sep 06, but suffered heavy defeats before that: a 1-4 home loss to Twente, a 2-5 home loss to Feyenoord, a 1-3 loss at Fortuna Sittard, and a 0-4 home loss to SBV Excelsior Rotterdam. They have conceded 18 goals in these five games.

NEC Nijmegen's form is mixed but shows more promise. Their last five results are one win, one draw, and three losses. They drew 2-2 at home with SBV Excelsior Rotterdam on Sep 08 and lost 1-3 at home to Feyenoord. However, they secured a strong 3-1 away win at Zwolle on Aug 29. Their two other recent matches were UEFA Champions League Qualification losses to Bodo/Glimt.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these sides is very balanced. In 21 previous meetings, Cambuur Leeuwarden has 4 wins, NEC Nijmegen has 4 wins, and there have been 13 draws. The most recent match, a KNVB Beker clash on Feb 27, 2024, ended in a 1-1 draw. Before that, they played a 0-0 draw in the Eredivisie on Feb 11, 2023. NEC Nijmegen won the three prior encounters, all in the Eredivisie, with scores of 0-1, 1-2, and 1-2.

League Table Positions

In the Eredivisie standings, NEC Nijmegen is 9th with 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), scoring 11 and conceding 9. Cambuur Leeuwarden is not listed in the top 12 of the provided overall table, suggesting they are lower in the rankings. NEC Nijmegen's away form is particularly strong: they are 7th in the away table with a perfect record of 2 wins from 2 away games, scoring 7 and conceding only 2. Cambuur Leeuwarden's home form is not in the top 8 of the home table, indicating struggles at Cambuur Stadion.

Win Probability: Cambuur Leeuwarden or NEC Nijmegen?

After analyzing all available data, the win probabilities for this match are: Cambuur Leeuwarden 24%, Draw 24%, NEC Nijmegen 52%. This calculation uses the inverse of the best available odds (home 5.40, draw 2.62, away 1.57) as a base, normalized to remove the bookmaker margin. The resulting implied probabilities are then adjusted to reflect NEC Nijmegen's perfect away record (2 wins, 7 goals scored), Cambuur Leeuwarden's terrible recent form (4 losses in 5, 18 goals conceded), and the head-to-head trend where NEC Nijmegen has won 3 of the last 5 meetings. NEC Nijmegen is the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see NEC Nijmegen as the favorite. The best available odds for an away win are as low as 1.57, while a home win for Cambuur Leeuwarden is priced as high as 5.40. The draw is offered around 2.62. Based on the stats, NEC Nijmegen's strong away performances and Cambuur Leeuwarden's defensive vulnerabilities make the away win the most probable outcome. Our Cambuur Leeuwarden vs NEC Nijmegen betting tips point to an NEC Nijmegen victory.