Neftchi - Surkhon Termez prediction 9 September 2026
Neftchi
Surkhon TermezNeftchi
Al Ittihad JeddahPakhtakorNeftchiNeftchiLokomotiv Farm TashkentFK Kokand 1912NeftchiAl Nassr RiyadhNeftchiNeftchiXorazm FK UrganchLokomotiv Farm TashkentNeftchiNeftchiAl Quwa Al JawiyaNeftchiSurkhon TermezNasaf QarshiNeftchiNeftchiPakhtakorNeftchiSogdianaFK BuxoroNeftchiAndijanNeftchiNeftchiQizilqum ZarafshonFK BuxoroSurkhon TermezSurkhon TermezXorazm FK UrganchQizilqum ZarafshonSurkhon TermezSurkhon TermezFK Kokand 1912NeftchiSurkhon TermezBunyodkorSurkhon TermezSurkhon TermezGulistanSurkhon TermezAGMK OlmaliqPakhtakorSurkhon TermezSurkhon TermezSogdianaSurkhon TermezNavbahor NamanganFK Kokand 1912Surkhon TermezXorazm FK UrganchSurkhon TermezSurkhon TermezDinamo SamarqandAndijanSurkhon TermezNeftchiSurkhon TermezSurkhon TermezNeftchiNeftchiSurkhon TermezSurkhon TermezNeftchiSurkhon TermezNeftchiNeftchiSurkhon TermezSurkhon TermezNeftchiNeftchiSurkhon TermezSurkhon TermezNeftchi| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Neftchi | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 59:22 | +37 | 58 |
| 2 |  Pakhtakor | 25 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 44:25 | +19 | 53 |
| 3 |  Navbahor Namangan | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 44:25 | +19 | 49 |
| 4 |  AGMK Olmaliq | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 36:32 | +4 | 42 |
| 5 |  Nasaf Qarshi | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 37:23 | +14 | 41 |
| 6 |  FK Buxoro | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 37:32 | +5 | 41 |
| 7 |  Lokomotiv | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 40:31 | +9 | 40 |
| 8 |  Qizilqum Zarafshon | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 25:31 | -6 | 34 |
| 9 |  Andijan | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 30:33 | -3 | 31 |
| 10 |  Dinamo Samarqand | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 36:39 | -3 | 31 |
| 11 |  Sogdiana | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 42:49 | -7 | 29 |
| 12 | Surkhon Termez | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 19:28 | -9 | 29 |
| 13 |  Bunyodkor | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 26:41 | -15 | 26 |
| 14 |  FK Kokand 1912 | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 25:36 | -11 | 23 |
| 15 |  Xorazm FK Urganch | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 21:36 | -15 | 23 |
| 16 |  Mashal Muborak | 25 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 12:50 | -38 | 4 |
Neftchi vs Surkhon Termez Prediction (Sep 09)
The Neftchi vs Surkhon Termez prediction for September 9, 2026, points towards a comfortable home win. League leaders Neftchi host mid-table Surkhon Termez in the Uzbekistan Super League at 14:00. Based on the stats, Neftchi has a 68% chance of winning, the draw is at 21%, and Surkhon Termez has an 11% chance.
Team Form
Neftchi's recent form shows three wins in their last five matches (W, W, L, W, L). They secured a 1-0 cup win over Pakhtakor and a 3-0 league victory against Sogdiana. However, they are coming off a heavy 6-2 away defeat to Nasaf Qarshi on September 4. Surkhon Termez have won just once in their last five outings (L, D, D, L, W). Their latest result was a 1-0 away win at Bunyodkor, but they lost 3-1 at home to Sogdiana and were beaten 1-0 at home by Gulistan in the cup.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record heavily favors Neftchi. In the last 8 meetings, Neftchi have 3 wins and 5 draws, while Surkhon Termez are yet to record a victory. The most recent clash on March 5, 2026, ended in a 3-0 away win for Neftchi. The previous encounter at Neftchi's ground finished 2-1 on November 2, 2025.
League Table Positions
Neftchi sit top of the Super League table with 45 points from 20 matches (14 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses). They have scored 47 goals and conceded only 16. Surkhon Termez are 12th with 23 points (6 wins, 5 draws, 9 losses), scoring 17 and conceding 26. At home, Neftchi are the strongest side with 25 points from 10 games (8 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) and a goal difference of +21. Surkhon's away record is 6th best, with 14 points from 10 trips.
Win Probability: Neftchi or Surkhon Termez?
Neftchi has a 68% chance of winning, the draw is at 21%, and Surkhon Termez has an 11% chance. These probabilities are calculated by normalizing the inverse of the best available odds (1.36 home, 5.55 draw, 9.33 away) to remove the bookmaker margin, then adjusting for Neftchi's dominant league position, their perfect head-to-head record of 3 wins and 5 draws without defeat, and their exceptional home form. Surkhon's low scoring record and inability to beat Neftchi historically reduce their chances significantly.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers see Neftchi as the clear favorite. The best available odds are 1.36 for a home win, 5.55 for the draw, and 9.33 for an away win. Other bookmakers list the home win as low as 1.27. Based on the stats, a home victory is the most likely outcome. The head-to-head record and the 22-point gap in the league table support a prediction of a Neftchi win.
Neftchi vs Surkhon Termez โ FAQ
- Who will win Neftchi vs Surkhon Termez?
- Neftchi are the strong favorites to win. Our analysis gives Neftchi a 68% chance, a draw a 21% chance, and Surkhon Termez an 11% chance. This is based on Neftchi's top league position, unbeaten head-to-head record, and the bookmaker odds.
- What is the win probability for Neftchi?
- Neftchi has a 68% probability of winning this match. This high percentage reflects their 1st place in the league, 8 home wins from 10 games, and the fact that Surkhon Termez have never beaten them in 8 previous meetings.
- When is the Neftchi vs Surkhon Termez match?
- The match is scheduled for September 9, 2026, at 14:00 local time. It is a Super League fixture in Uzbekistan.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The best available odds are 1.36 for a Neftchi win, 5.55 for a draw, and 9.33 for a Surkhon Termez win. Other bookmakers offer odds as low as 1.27 for the home victory.