Neptunas Klaipeda - Hegelmann Litauen B prediction 10 October 2026

The Neptunas Klaipeda vs Hegelmann Litauen B prediction for October 10, 2026, points to a home victory in the Lithuanian 1 Lyga. Based on our analysis, Neptunas Klaipeda has a 62% chance of winning, while the draw sits at 24% and Hegelmann Litauen B at 14%. The match kicks off at 12:00 local time.

Team Form

Neptunas Klaipeda come into this match with inconsistent form: L, W, L, W, L in their last five outings. Most recently, they lost 2-1 away to Minija Kretinga on September 19. At home, they beat Lietava Jonava 2-0 on September 11. Earlier, they suffered a 1-0 defeat at Vilnius Zalgiris B and a 2-0 loss at BFA Vilnius, but managed a 3-1 home win over Atmosfera Mazeikiai. This patchy run shows they can be vulnerable, especially on the road, but at home they have been stronger.

Hegelmann Litauen B have also been patchy: L, L, W, L, W. They lost 1-0 at home to Dainava Alytus on September 18 and were thrashed 4-1 by FK Transinvest B on September 11. However, they did manage a 5-1 home win over FA Siauliai B on September 4 and a 3-2 victory against Ekranas Panevezio on August 21. Their away form is a concern, with heavy defeats in recent travels.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Neptunas Klaipeda. In the last four meetings, Neptunas have won three and Hegelmann Litauen B one, with no draws. The most recent clash on May 22, 2026, saw Neptunas win 3-2 away. Before that, Neptunas won 1-0 away on October 31, 2025, and 2-0 at home on June 22, 2025. Hegelmann’s only win came on November 3, 2024, a 2-1 home victory. This history suggests Neptunas know how to beat this opponent.

League Table Positions

Neptunas Klaipeda sit 4th in the 1 Lyga table with 44 points from 25 matches (14 wins, 2 draws, 9 losses). They have scored 33 goals and conceded 30. Hegelmann Litauen B are not in the top 12 of the league standings, indicating a lower position. Neptunas’ home record shows 8 wins and 4 losses in 12 games, while their away form is solid with 6 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses. The visitors’ league standing suggests they are underdogs in this fixture.

Win Probability: Neptunas Klaipeda or Hegelmann Litauen B?

After calculating from the bookmakers’ odds and adjusting for recent form and head-to-head stats, we assign a 62% win probability to Neptunas Klaipeda, 24% to the draw, and 14% to Hegelmann Litauen B. The odds imply a home win probability around 59%, but Neptunas’ dominance in H2H (3 wins in last 4) and superior league position push that figure higher. Home advantage also plays a role. Hegelmann’s inconsistent form and lowly league standing make an away win unlikely. Therefore, the most probable outcome is a home victory.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have priced Neptunas Klaipeda as clear favorites with odds of 1.33 for a home win. The draw is offered at 2.75, and an away win for Hegelmann Litauen B at 6.50. These odds reflect the gulf in class. Based on the stats, our prediction is a home win for Neptunas Klaipeda. However, the draw is a plausible alternative given both teams’ recent inconsistency. For betting tips, the home win offers little value at 1.33, so the draw or a handicap bet might be considered.