Neretva Metkovic - NK HV Posedarje prediction 16 September 2026

Our Neretva Metkovic vs NK HV Posedarje prediction for the Treca HNL match on Sep 16, 2026, at 14:30 points to a clear home win. Based on a deep analysis of the odds, head-to-head record, and recent form, Neretva Metkovic has a 55% chance of winning, while the draw is at 25% and NK HV Posedarje has just a 20% probability.

Team Form

Neretva Metkovic come into this fixture in solid shape. Their last five outings (most recent first) show three wins, one draw, and one loss:

• 2–0 win vs Junak Sinj (Sep 5)
• 8–0 win vs NK HV Posedarje (May 30)
• 0–2 loss vs Zadar (May 2)
• 0–0 draw at Neretvanac Opuzen (Apr 19)
• 1–0 win at NK Vodice (Mar 28)

That run includes three clean sheets and an 8‑goal explosion against today's opponents. The home side has been strong at their own ground, winning two of their last three at home while keeping two shutouts.

NK HV Posedarje, by contrast, have struggled for any consistency. Their last five matches read L‑D‑L‑W‑L:

• 0–8 loss at Neretva Metkovic (May 30)
• 3–3 draw vs HNK Sloga Mravince (Apr 22)
• 0–1 loss at Kamen Ivanbegovina (Apr 19)
• 5–2 win vs Val Kastel Stari (Apr 11)
• 1–3 loss at Jadran Kastel Sucurac (Nov 08)

Away form is even more alarming: they have lost three of their last four road trips, conceding 13 goals in those defeats and scoring only twice.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record is entirely one‑sided. Neretva Metkovic have won both previous meetings, both at home, with an aggregate score of 11–0. The most recent clash on May 30, 2026, finished 8–0, while the earlier encounter on Nov 2, 2024, ended 3–0. NK HV Posedarje have never found the net against Neretva Metkovic and have shipped 11 goals.

Win Probability: Neretva Metkovic or NK HV Posedarje?

The bookmakers' odds (2.25 home, 2.20 draw, 4.50 away) imply a probability of 39.6% for a home win, 40.5% for the draw, and 19.8% for an away win after removing the overround. However, such a market view heavily underestimates the real gap between the sides. Factoring in the perfect H2H (two wins, 11–0 goals) and contrasting form—Neretva Metkovic W‑W‑L‑D‑W vs NK HV Posedarje L‑D‑L‑W‑L—we adjust the chances significantly. The hosts' home advantage, combined with the visitors' dreadful away performances, shifts the probabilities to: Neretva Metkovic 55%, Draw 25%, NK HV Posedarje 20%. This means Neretva Metkovic are the clear favourite to take all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer a range of odds: one set lists 2.25 (home), 2.20 (draw), 4.50 (away); another shows 2.20, 2.25, and 4.33. The draw is priced very closely to the home win, but the head-to-head history and current form suggest the home side should be much shorter. Based on the stats, our Neretva Metkovic vs NK HV Posedarje prediction is a comfortable home victory, likely with a clean sheet. Backing Neretva Metkovic to win offers value, and the 55% win probability underlines why they are the standout betting tip.