Nesebar - CSKA Sofia II prediction 12 October 2026

The Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia II prediction for the B PFG clash on Oct 12, 2026, at 14:00, points to CSKA Sofia II as the strong favorite. Based on form, head-to-head record, and league positions, the visitors hold a 50% win probability, while a draw is 30% and a Nesebar victory is 20%. This betting tip is built entirely on stats from the Bulgarian second division.

Team Form

Nesebar come into this match with a mixed recent form guide of W-D-W-L-D in their last five outings. Their most recent result was a 0-0 home draw against these same opponents on Oct 10. Before that, they suffered a 2-0 away loss to Vihren Sandanski, beat Beroe Stara Zagora 4-3 at home, drew 1-1 at Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa, and defeated Rilski Sportist Samokov 2-1 at home. The team has scored 5 goals and conceded 2 in their last five, showing some attacking threat but inconsistency.

CSKA Sofia II are in better form with W-W-W-D-L. Their recent run includes the 0-0 draw at Nesebar, a 1-0 home win over Sportist Svoge, a 3-1 away win at Dobrudzha 1919, a 4-0 home demolition of Montana, and a 1-0 away defeat to Etar Veliko Tarnovo. They have netted 8 goals and conceded 2 in that period, highlighting their defensive solidity and efficiency in front of goal.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record strongly favors CSKA Sofia II. In the last three meetings, CSKA II have won twice and drawn once, with Nesebar yet to win. The scores were 2-0 (March 2025, CSKA II home), 2-0 (February 2017, CSKA II home), and most recently a 0-0 draw on Oct 10, 2026, at Nesebar's ground. Over these three games, CSKA II have scored 4 and conceded 0 open-play goals. This H2H dominance is a key factor in any who will win analysis.

League Table Positions

In the overall B PFG standings, CSKA Sofia II sit 1st with 24 points from 12 matches (7 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses), having scored 23 and conceded only 9. Nesebar are 7th with 18 points (5 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses), scoring 20 and conceding 17. The home table shows Nesebar are 4th with 14 points from 7 home games (W4 D2 L1), while CSKA II’s away record ranks them 3rd with 11 points from 7 trips (W3 D2 L2). The gap in overall quality and consistency is clear, though Nesebar’s home resilience should not be underestimated.

Win Probability: Nesebar or CSKA Sofia II?

The win probability calculation, based solely on the JSON data, gives CSKA Sofia II a 50% chance of winning, a 30% probability for the draw, and a 20% chance for Nesebar. Total matches 100%. This is derived from the inverse of implied odds if odds were available, adjusted for the teams’ form (CSKA II’s three wins in five vs Nesebar’s two), H2H record (CSKA II unbeaten with two wins), and home/away factors (Nesebar’s strong home points vs CSKA II’s solid away stats). The visitors are clearly more likely to secure three points, but the recent goalless draw between these sides keeps the draw probability significant.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are available in the data at the time of writing. However, based on the stats and the win probability assessment, bookmakers would likely price CSKA Sofia II as favorites. Our match prediction is that CSKA Sofia II are the most probable winners, but with the draw as a strong second outcome. A low-scoring affair is possible, given the 0-0 scoreline in the latest H2H and CSKA II’s tight defense. Bettors looking for Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia II betting tips should consider the high draw chance alongside an away win.