Ukmerge - Nevezis Kedainiai prediction 2 October 2026

The Ukmerge vs Nevezis Kedainiai prediction for this 2 Lyga match on October 2, 2026, points to an away win. Nevezis Kedainiai arrives in superb form and is the clear favorite, with a calculated win probability of 50%. Ukmerge, playing at home, has a 20% chance of winning, while a draw stands at 30%.

Team Form

Ukmerge's recent performances in the 2 Lyga have been inconsistent. Their last five matches show a sequence of L, D, W, L, D: a 2-0 defeat at Vilnius Football Academy (Sep 23), a 0-0 draw at Sirvena Birzai (Sep 12), a 5-1 home win over Viltis Vilnius (Sep 5), a 2-0 loss at Suduva Marijampole B (Aug 29), and a 2-2 home draw with Sirijus Klaipeda (Aug 14). With only one victory in that period, they lack momentum.

Nevezis Kedainiai, in contrast, is in outstanding form. They have won their last five matches: 2-1 at home to Sirijus Klaipeda (Sep 25), 2-1 at Dainava B (Sep 19), 4-0 at home to Klaipeda (Sep 11), 6-0 at home to FC Neptunas B (Aug 28), and 3-2 at Banga Gargzdai B (Aug 24). This perfect run, scoring 17 goals and conceding just 4, underlines their dominance.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met just once before, on May 22, 2026. Nevezis Kedainiai hosted Ukmerge and secured a 2-1 victory. The head-to-head record stands at 1 win for Nevezis Kedainiai, with no wins for Ukmerge and no draws. Even with the venue reversed, the historical edge strongly favors the visitors.

Win Probability: Ukmerge or Nevezis Kedainiai?

Our win probability calculation uses bookmaker odds, recent form, and head‑to‑head data. The average implied probabilities from two major bookmakers gave Nevezis Kedainiai around 42% chance, a draw at 36%, and Ukmerge at 22%. After adjusting for the vast gulf in form — Ukmerge’s one win in five versus Nevezis Kedainiai’s five straight victories — and the only H2H result, we shift the probabilities further toward the away side. The final assessment: Nevezis Kedainiai 50% chance to win, Ukmerge 20%, Draw 30%. Nevezis Kedainiai is the more likely winner based on current momentum and overall data.

Odds & Match Prediction

The latest odds from bookmakers confirm Nevezis Kedainiai as the favorite. One bookmaker offers odds of 2.15 for an away win, 2.50 for a draw, and 3.90 for a home win; another prices the away win at 2.05, the draw at 2.40, and the home win at 4.33. Our prediction, grounded in the stats, is an away victory for Nevezis Kedainiai. Given their defensive solidity and attacking record, the match may also trend toward over 2.5 goals. Backing an away win looks the most logical betting tip.