FC Cincinnati - New England Revolution prediction 15 October 2026

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution prediction for their MLS clash on October 15, 2026, at 00:30 local time. Based on the latest odds, league table positions and head-to-head history, FC Cincinnati are the slight favourites with a 45% chance of winning, while New England Revolution hold a 27% chance of an upset, and a draw is at 28%.

Team Form

FC Cincinnati's last five matches (most recent first): W, L, D, D, L. They edged Atlanta United 3-1 away in their most recent outing, but were thrashed 5-0 by Philadelphia Union and lost 3-1 at Montreal Impact. The two draws – 2-2 at Houston Dynamo and 3-3 at home to Charlotte FC – show they can score but struggle for consistency.

New England Revolution’s last five: L, L, W, W, W. They have lost their last two, including a 3-0 home defeat to Seattle Sounders and a 3-0 loss at Real Salt Lake. However, before that they recorded three straight wins – 4-2 at home to Orlando City, 2-1 at Chicago Fire and 2-1 at New York City. The recent slump breaks a strong run, but they arrive with more overall winning momentum than the hosts.

Head-to-Head Record

Across 18 all-time meetings, the head-to-head record reads 5 home wins, 5 draws and 8 away wins. That points to a historically high number of away victories in this fixture. The most recent meetings tell a mixed story:

• Mar 2026: New England Revolution 6-1 FC Cincinnati (MLS)
• Jan 2026: New England Revolution 1-1 FC Cincinnati (Friendly)
• Jun 2025: New England Revolution 0-1 FC Cincinnati (MLS)
• Apr 2025: FC Cincinnati 1-0 New England Revolution (MLS)
• Mar 2024: New England Revolution 1-2 FC Cincinnati (MLS)

The last match at TQL Stadium ended in a 1-0 home win for FC Cincinnati. Only one of the last five head-to-head contests produced more than two goals, suggesting recent matches are often tight.

League Table Positions

In the overall MLS standings, New England Revolution sit 8th with 46 points from 28 matches (14 wins, 4 draws, 10 losses). FC Cincinnati are outside the top 12, placing them below the playoff line and indicating a weaker campaign. The home standings (top 8) do not include FC Cincinnati, while New England do not appear in the away top 8, meaning neither side has excelled in the corresponding venue forms. Despite the hosts’ lower league position, home advantage often levels the playing field.

Win Probability: FC Cincinnati or New England Revolution?

Using the inverse of the latest match odds (home 1.62, draw 2.75, away 3.40) as a base and adjusting for form, H2H and table gap, the calculated win probabilities are:

• FC Cincinnati win: 45%
• Draw: 28%
• New England Revolution win: 27%

The bookmaker odds give FC Cincinnati around a 48% raw implied probability, but New England’s superior league position (8th vs outside top 12) and a three-match winning run prior to the last two defeats warrant an uplift in their chances. The high historical away-win count in this fixture also prevents a clear home domination. FC Cincinnati is more likely to win, but the draw and away win are both live outcomes.

Odds & FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution Match Prediction

The latest prematch odds (1X2 market) show FC Cincinnati at 1.62, the draw at 2.75 and New England Revolution at 3.40. Bookmakers clearly see the hosts as favourites, yet the double chance (home or draw) implies a high probability of avoiding defeat for FC Cincinnati.

Our match prediction: FC Cincinnati to win or draw (double chance). The hosts’ decent scoring ability at home, combined with New England’s back-to-back heavy losses, gives the edge to FC Cincinnati, but a stalemate remains the most likely spoiler. Expect a cautious encounter, possibly under 2.5 goals given recent H2H trends.