Charlotte Independence - New York Cosmos prediction 11 October 2026

Charlotte Independence vs New York Cosmos prediction: the USL League One match on Oct 11, 2026, sees high-flying Charlotte Independence host New York Cosmos. Based on our analysis, Charlotte Independence has a 60% chance of winning, while New York Cosmos has an 18% win probability and the draw is at 22%.

Team Form

Charlotte Independence are in excellent form, unbeaten in their last five matches with three wins and two draws (W, D, W, D, W). Their most recent result was a 3-2 away victory against Sarasota Paradise on Oct 4. Prior to that, they drew 1-1 at home to Fort Wayne, won 2-1 at Richmond Kickers, drew 1-1 at AC Boise, and won a thrilling 5-4 home match against Westchester SC. They have scored 12 goals in these five games, averaging 2.4 per match.

New York Cosmos have been inconsistent, with two wins and three losses in their last five (L, W, L, L, W). They lost 2-1 away to FC Naples on Oct 4, beat Richmond Kickers 3-2 at home, lost 2-1 at home to Westchester SC, lost 2-1 away to AC Boise, and won 4-2 away at Fort Wayne. Their away form is a concern, with only one win in their last three road trips.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once before, on Apr 4, 2026, when New York Cosmos won 3-2 at home. That match saw both teams score, but Charlotte Independence will be looking to avenge that defeat on home soil.

League Table Positions

Charlotte Independence sit 2nd in the USL League One table with 60 points from 29 matches (18 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses). They have scored 67 goals and conceded 42. At home, they are the best team in the league, with 13 wins, 1 draw, and just 1 loss in 15 games, scoring 42 goals and conceding only 19. New York Cosmos are not listed in the top 12 of the standings, indicating they are lower in the table. This gulf in league positions strongly favors the home side.

Win Probability: Charlotte Independence or New York Cosmos?

Charlotte Independence has a 60% chance of winning, the draw is at 22%, and New York Cosmos has an 18% chance. This calculation is based on Charlotte’s dominant home record (13-1-1), their current unbeaten streak, and New York Cosmos’ poor away form and lower league standing. The head-to-head result from earlier this season gives New York Cosmos some hope, but Charlotte’s overall quality and home advantage make them the clear favorite.

Odds & Match Prediction

Odds for this match are not available in our data. However, based on the stats, Charlotte Independence are the expected winners. Their strong home form and high-scoring attack should be too much for a New York Cosmos side that has struggled on the road. A home win is the most likely outcome, but both teams have shown they can score, so a high-scoring game is possible.