New York Cosmos - Chattanooga Red Wolves prediction 24 October 2026

The New York Cosmos vs Chattanooga Red Wolves prediction for this USL League One fixture on Oct 24 leans towards the home side. The match kicks off at 21:00, and based on recent form and head-to-head data, New York Cosmos has a 52% win probability compared to 25% for Chattanooga Red Wolves, with a 23% chance of a draw.

Team Form

New York Cosmos enter this match struggling with consistency. Their last five results read L, L, L, W, L. On Oct 17, they suffered a heavy 0-3 home defeat to One Knoxville. Before that, they lost 3-0 away to Charlotte Independence on Oct 11, and 2-1 away to FC Naples on Oct 4. Their only win came on Sep 27, a 3-2 home victory over Richmond Kickers. They also lost 1-2 at home to Westchester SC on Sep 20. Clearly, the Cosmos have defensive issues, conceding 11 goals in these five matches.

Chattanooga Red Wolves are not faring much better. Their away form is poor, with a recent record of L, L, W, L, L. They lost 1-0 away to Spokane Velocity on Oct 18 and 3-0 away to One Knoxville on Oct 8. A 3-0 home win over Corpus Christi on Oct 3 was a bright spot, but they followed that with a 0-1 home loss to Spokane Velocity on Oct 1. A 1-0 away defeat to FC Naples on Sep 27 extends their scoring drought on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The H2H record between these teams is limited but favors New York Cosmos. They have 1 win and 1 draw from two previous meetings, while Chattanooga Red Wolves are yet to win. The most recent clash, on Aug 23, 2026, ended in a thrilling 3-3 draw at Chattanooga. Earlier, on Sep 29, 2019, in the NPSL, New York Cosmos won 3-1 at home. The Cosmos have never lost to the Red Wolves.

League Table Positions

Chattanooga Red Wolves sit 7th in the USL League One overall standings with 46 points from 31 matches, having won 14, drawn 4, and lost 13. Their goal difference is +6 (50 scored, 44 conceded). New York Cosmos are not present in the top 12 of the league table provided, suggesting they are in a lower position. The Red Wolves' away record shows weakness: they rank 8th in the away table with only 17 points from 15 games, winning just 5. Their home record, where they are 7th with 29 points, is much stronger, but this match is on the road.

Win Probability: New York Cosmos or Chattanooga Red Wolves?

Analyzing the available data, we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: New York Cosmos have a 52% chance of winning, the draw stands at 23%, and Chattanooga Red Wolves have a 25% win probability. These figures stem from a blend of H2H dominance (Cosmos are unbeaten in 2 games), the home advantage for New York, and both teams' poor recent form. While no odds were supplied to use as a base, the Cosmos' historical edge and Chattanooga's terrible away run (4 losses in 5) heavily tilt the balance. The home side is more likely to secure the victory, though defensive frailties make a draw a real possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

No specific bookmaker odds are available in the data. However, based on the stats, a home win is the most probable match outcome. Bookmakers would likely see New York Cosmos as the favorite, given their unbeaten H2H record and Chattanooga's struggles on the road. Our New York Cosmos vs Chattanooga Red Wolves prediction is a narrow home victory, with a 1-0 or 2-1 scoreline looking plausible. The total goals might be under 3.5, as both attacks have misfired recently—Chattanooga failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away games.