Palestine - New Zealand prediction 24 September 2026

Palestine vs New Zealand prediction for the Friendly International match on September 24, 2026. The fixture kicks off at 10:30 and sees Palestine hosting New Zealand. Based on our win probability analysis, New Zealand enters as the favorite with a 40% chance of winning, while a draw is almost equally likely at 40%.

Team Form

Palestine has produced an extraordinary run of draws, registering five consecutive stalemates across all competitions. In June 2026, they played two 0-0 draws against Kyrgyzstan in international friendlies, followed by a 1-1 draw with Saudi Arabia in the Arab Cup on December 11, 2025, a 0-0 at Syria on December 7, and a 2-2 home result against Tunisia on December 4. These results highlight a side that is difficult to beat but equally struggles to convert chances into wins.

New Zealand’s recent form has been poor. They suffered heavy losses at the 2026 World Cup, falling 5-1 to Belgium and 3-1 to Egypt, before recording their only recent non-defeat — a 2-2 draw with Iran. That was followed by a 1-0 loss to England and a 4-0 thrashing by Haiti in June friendlies. Four defeats in five matches underline defensive frailties and a lack of cutting edge away from home.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head record between Palestine and New Zealand. This will be the first ever meeting of the two nations, making historical comparisons impossible.

Win Probability: Palestine or New Zealand?

The probability of each outcome has been calculated by first inverting the bookmaker odds (Palestine win 4.75, draw 2.20, New Zealand win 1.62) and normalizing to remove the margin. This base gave New Zealand a 48.1% chance, the draw 35.5%, and Palestine 16.4%. However, we then adjust for team form. Palestine’s five draws in a row show they are extremely tough to beat at home, raising the draw probability significantly. New Zealand’s four losses in five matches, including heavy defeats, reduce their win likelihood. The final probabilities are: Palestine 20%, draw 40%, New Zealand 40%. In summary, New Zealand remains the favorite because of their stronger odds, but a draw is a very realistic outcome given Palestine’s resilience and New Zealand’s poor run.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer a Palestine home win at 4.75, a draw at 2.20, and a New Zealand away victory at 1.62. These odds clearly signal New Zealand as the expected winner. However, based on the stats, a draw carries almost the same chance. Our prediction is that the match will be tight, with New Zealand having an edge but Palestine’s form making a stalemate the most likely single outcome. Cautious bettors may find value in the double chance or draw market.