Leeds United - Newcastle United prediction 14 September 2026
Leeds United
Newcastle United
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- 18A. StachM
- 9D. Calvert-LewinF
- 2J. BogleM
- 24J. JustinD
- 4E. AmpaduM
- 5T. MuharemoviฤD
- 30N. ElvediD
- 22A. TanakaM
- 3G. GudmundssonM
- 19N. OkaforF
- 26M. Bard
- 8S. Longstaff
- 10H. Wilson
- 20D. James
- 14L. Nmecha
- 23J. Bahoya
- 11B. Aaronson
- 16M. Zetterer
- 15J. Bijol
- 6Nico GonzรกlezM
- 12M. ThiawD
- 11H. BarnesM
- 23J. MurphyM
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- 41J. Ramsey
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- 8A. Bamba
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- 8M. Miley
Leeds UnitedNewcastle UnitedNewcastle UnitedLeeds UnitedLeeds UnitedNewcastle UnitedLeeds UnitedNewcastle UnitedNewcastle UnitedLeeds UnitedLeeds UnitedNewcastle UnitedNewcastle UnitedLeeds UnitedNewcastle UnitedLeeds UnitedNewcastle UnitedLeeds UnitedNewcastle UnitedLeeds UnitedLeeds UnitedNewcastle UnitedLeeds UnitedNewcastle UnitedNewcastle UnitedLeeds United| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20:9 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 |  Arsenal FC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13:5 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23:5 | +18 | 16 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9:8 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 11 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13:8 | +5 | 10 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 10 |
| 9 |  Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:9 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 |  Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:7 | +1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Newcastle United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:14 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 |  Manchester United | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10:10 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 |  Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9:17 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 |  Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9:13 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 |  Nottingham Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 6 |
| 19 |  Coventry City | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6:15 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6:14 | -8 | 4 |
Leeds United vs Newcastle United Prediction (Sep 14, 2026)
Our Leeds United vs Newcastle United prediction for the Premier League clash on Sep 14, 2026, points to a draw as the most probable result. The match at Elland Road kicks off at 19:00, and based on form, head-to-head record, and odds, a stalemate has a 38% chance, with Leeds at 35% and Newcastle at 27%.
Team Form
Leeds United come into this fixture with mixed recent results: L, D, D, W, W. A heavy 6-3 loss at Chelsea was followed by draws against Brighton (1-1) and Brentford (1-1), before back-to-back wins over Nottingham Forest (2-0 in the League Cup and 1-0 in the league). Newcastle United, on the other hand, are unbeaten in their last five: W, D, W, W, D. They beat Millwall 1-0 away, drew 2-2 with Bournemouth, won 2-0 at Tottenham, edged West Brom 3-2, and held Liverpool to a 2-2 draw. Newcastleโs away form looks particularly strong.
Head-to-Head Record
In the last 12 meetings across all competitions, Leeds United have won 4, Newcastle United have won 2, and 6 matches have ended in draws. The most recent encounter was a thrilling 4-3 home win for Newcastle in January 2026. The previous four clashes all finished level: 0-0 (Aug 2025), 2-2 (May 2023), 0-0 (Dec 2022), and a 1-0 away win for Newcastle in January 2022. The history clearly shows tight, often low-scoring affairs with a high draw frequency.
League Table Positions
Both sides are closely matched in the Premier League standings. Newcastle United sit 10th with 5 points (1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses, goals 6:4), while Leeds United are 11th also with 5 points (1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses, goals 3:2). Neither team has lost a league game yet, and only goal difference separates them. Leedsโ away record is solid (4 points from 2 games), but they have played just once at home โ a 1-1 draw with Brentford.
Win Probability: Leeds United or Newcastle United?
After normalizing the latest odds (home 2.15, draw 2.30, away 2.80) and adjusting for recent form, head-to-head trends, and home advantage, the probabilities are:
- Leeds United win: 35%
- Draw: 38%
- Newcastle United win: 27%
The draw emerges as the most likely outcome. Leedsโ home edge is offset by Newcastleโs unbeaten run and the historical pattern of stalemates between these sides. Bookmakers may favor the home team, but the underlying numbers point to a share of the points.
Odds & Match Prediction
The latest bookmaker odds show Leeds United as slight favorites at 2.15, with the draw priced at 2.30 and an away win for Newcastle United at 2.80. While the market leans towards a home victory, our analysis suggests the value lies in the draw. Based on the stats, a low-scoring draw is the most realistic outcome, and the prediction is a 1-1 or 0-0 stalemate.
Leeds United vs Newcastle United โ FAQ
- Who will win Leeds United vs Newcastle United?
- Based on our analysis, a draw is the most likely result with a 38% probability. Leeds United has a 35% chance of winning, while Newcastle United has a 27% chance.
- What is the win probability for Leeds United?
- Leeds United has a 35% chance of winning this match. Despite being the bookmakers' favorite with odds of 2.15, the high frequency of draws in head-to-head meetings (6 in the last 12) and Newcastle's strong away form reduce their win probability.
- When is the Leeds United vs Newcastle United match?
- The match is scheduled for Sep 14, 2026, at 19:00 local time. It will be played at Elland Road in Leeds and is a Premier League fixture.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The latest odds are: Leeds United win at 2.15, a draw at 2.30, and Newcastle United win at 2.80. These odds imply a close contest with Leeds as slight favorites.
- What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Newcastle?
- In the last 12 meetings, Leeds United have won 4, Newcastle United have won 2, and 6 matches ended in draws. The most recent encounter was a 4-3 win for Newcastle in January 2026.