Caerphilly Athletic - Newport City prediction 9 October 2026

Caerphilly Athletic vs Newport City prediction: Newport City are the slight favourites with a 40% win probability when they visit Caerphilly Athletic in the Cymru South on Oct 9, 2026 at 19:45. The match is expected to be tight, with a draw at 30% and a home win for Caerphilly Athletic at 30%.

Team Form

Caerphilly Athletic

Caerphilly Athletic have struggled recently, with no wins in their last five matches (D2 L3). They lost 3-1 at Swansea University on Oct 3, then 2-1 at home to Pontypridd Town on Sep 25. A 2-2 draw at home to Treowen Stars in the Cup on Sep 18 was followed by a 3-2 home loss to Aberystwyth Town on Sep 12. Their only other point came from a 2-2 draw at Trethomas Bluebirds on Sep 4. Defensively, they have conceded 12 goals in these five games.

Newport City

Newport City are unbeaten in their last five, but all five matches ended in draws. They drew 1-1 at Cardiff Draconians on Oct 3, 0-0 at Afan Lido on Sep 25, and then three consecutive 0-0 draws: at home to Trethomas Bluebirds on Sep 16, at home to Trethomas Bluebirds again on Sep 11, and at home to Swansea University on Aug 31. Their defence has been solid, keeping four clean sheets in those five games, but they have scored just one goal.

Head-to-Head Record

There are no previous meetings between Caerphilly Athletic and Newport City. This will be the first head-to-head clash between the two sides.

League Table Positions

Neither Caerphilly Athletic nor Newport City feature in the top 12 of the Cymru South standings. Both clubs are in the lower half of the table, which adds to the uncertainty of this fixture. Newport City’s run of draws suggests they are difficult to beat, while Caerphilly Athletic’s poor form has left them near the bottom.

Win Probability: Caerphilly Athletic or Newport City?

Based on the available odds, team form, and home advantage, the win probabilities are: Caerphilly Athletic 30%, draw 30%, Newport City 40%. The bookmakers’ odds imply a slight edge for the away side, and Newport City’s five-match unbeaten streak (all draws) indicates they are resilient. Caerphilly Athletic have lost three of their last five and have home advantage, but that hasn’t translated into results. Therefore, Newport City are the more likely winners, though a draw is a very realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match are: Caerphilly Athletic home win at 2.45–2.52, a draw at 3.40–3.60, and a Newport City away win at 2.30–2.32. Bookmakers see Newport City as the favourite. Our prediction, based on the stats, is that Newport City have the highest chance of winning, but a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out given their recent goalless streak. A 1-0 away win or a 0-0 draw are the most likely scorelines.