Mold Alexandra - Newtown prediction 3 October 2026

The Mold Alexandra vs Newtown prediction for the Cymru North match on October 3, 2026, points to an away win. Based on the latest odds and team form, Newtown has a 45% chance of winning, while Mold Alexandra holds a 28% probability and the draw sits at 27%.

Team Form

Mold Alexandra come into this match unbeaten in their last five outings (W3 D2). They have scored 15 goals in that period, including a 5-1 thrashing of Gresford Athletic and a 4-0 win at Ruthin Town. However, their two most recent home games both ended in draws — 2-2 against Llanuwchllyn and 1-1? Actually, the 1-0 win over Buckley Town was at home, so only the last home game was a draw. Their attack is potent, but defensive lapses have cost them at home.

Newtown's recent form is also strong: three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five. Crucially, they have conceded just one goal in those five matches, keeping four clean sheets. Away from home, they beat Holyhead Hotspur 1-0 and drew 0-0 at Caersws, showing defensive discipline. The 0-1 home loss to Porthmadog is a minor blip in an otherwise solid run.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met twice in the Cymru North, with each team winning once — both victories coming away from home. In the most recent clash on April 3, 2026, Mold Alexandra won 2-1 at Newtown. Earlier, on November 8, 2025, Newtown triumphed 3-1 at Mold Alexandra. The head-to-head record offers no clear advantage, but Newtown's win on this ground last season gives them a psychological edge.

Win Probability: Mold Alexandra or Newtown?

Bookmakers' odds imply a 41.8% chance for a Newtown win, 29.7% for Mold Alexandra, and 28.5% for the draw. After adjusting for current form and the head-to-head record, we calculate the probabilities as:

• Mold Alexandra win: 28%
• Draw: 27%
• Newtown win: 45%

Newtown's defensive solidity — just one goal conceded in five matches — and their previous away victory at Mold Alexandra tip the balance. Mold Alexandra's attacking numbers are impressive, but their home form has been inconsistent, with two draws in the last three at their own ground. Therefore, Newtown is the more likely winner, though a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this Cymru North fixture vary across bookmakers. An away win for Newtown is priced between 1.98 and 2.50, a home win for Mold Alexandra between 2.88 and 3.30, and the draw between 2.30 and 3.70. These odds reflect the market's view of Newtown as the favorite.

Based on the stats, Newtown is the most probable winner. Their defensive record and away form make them a solid pick. However, Mold Alexandra's firepower could force a score draw. Our prediction: Newtown to win, but with a low goal total expected.