Nice - Strasbourg prediction 11 October 2026

Nice vs Strasbourg prediction for the Ligue 1 match on October 11, 2026. Based on the stats, Nice is the slight favorite to win with a 35% probability, but a draw is the most likely outcome at 38%. The match kicks off at 14:00 at the Allianz Riviera.

Team Form

Nice's recent form has been inconsistent. In their last five matches, they recorded one win, two draws, and two losses (W, L, D, L, D). They beat LOSC Lille 2-1 at home on September 20, but lost 1-0 at Auxerre and 3-0 at Paris FC. Home draws against Le Mans (1-1) and Lorient (0-0) show they are tough to beat at the Allianz Riviera, where they remain unbeaten in three games this season.

Strasbourg's last five results are L, D, W, W, L. They suffered a 2-1 loss at Paris FC and a heavy 4-0 defeat at Marseille, but also thrashed Troyes 6-2 away and beat Lens 2-1 at home. A 1-1 home draw with Monaco rounds out the sequence. Their away form is unpredictable, with one big win and two losses in their three road trips.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record between these teams is closely matched: Nice have 6 wins, Strasbourg 8 wins, and 8 draws. In the last five meetings, Nice hold a slight edge with 2 wins to Strasbourg's 1, alongside 2 draws. The most recent clash was a Cup tie on April 22, 2026, where Nice won 2-0 away at Strasbourg. Earlier in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season, Strasbourg won 3-1 at home, and the teams drew 1-1 in Nice on January 3, 2026.

League Table Positions

Strasbourg sit 9th in the Ligue 1 table with 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Nice are outside the top 12 overall, also with 5 points from 5 games (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses), but their home form is solid: 8th in the home standings with 5 points from 3 unbeaten matches (1 win, 2 draws). Strasbourg's away record is less consistent, with one win and two defeats in three away fixtures.

Win Probability: Nice or Strasbourg?

After analyzing all available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Nice has a 35% chance of winning, the draw is at 38%, and Strasbourg has a 27% chance. These percentages are derived from bookmaker odds (average 2.48 for a Nice win, 2.31 for a draw, 2.95 for a Strasbourg win), then adjusted for current form, head-to-head trends, and home advantage. The odds imply a draw is the most likely single outcome, and Nice's unbeaten home record supports a higher probability for the hosts compared to Strasbourg. However, Strasbourg's slightly better league position and historical away wins keep them within striking distance. The conclusion: while Nice is more likely to win than Strasbourg, the match is most likely to end in a draw.

Odds & Match Prediction

The average odds across bookmakers are 2.48 for a Nice victory, 2.31 for a draw, and 2.95 for a Strasbourg win. This market sees a draw as the favorite outcome, with Nice given a better chance than the visitors. Based on the stats, a draw looks the safest betting tip, but Nice could capitalize on home advantage to secure a narrow win. Our final Nice vs Strasbourg prediction: a low-scoring draw is the most probable result, but Nice have the edge if a winner emerges.