NK Maribor - HNK Gorica prediction 28 September 2026

NK Maribor vs HNK Gorica prediction: this Friendly Clubs match is played on Sep 28 at 15:00. Based on the supplied odds, team form and head-to-head record, NK Maribor is the favorite with a 55% win probability, the draw is at 25%, and HNK Gorica has a 20% chance.

Team Form

NK Maribor come into the match in good shape. Their last five results across all competitions are D, W, D, W, W. That run includes a 2-2 home draw with Aluminij, a 3-0 away win at NK Radomlje, a 1-1 home draw with Mura, a 3-2 away win at Nafta Lendava and a 3-1 home win over NK Bravo. That is three wins and two draws in the last five.

HNK Gorica’s recent form is more mixed. Their last five results are W, D, D, L, D. They won 1-0 at Istra 1961, drew 2-2 at home with NK Varazdin, drew 1-1 at Uskok Klis in the Cup, lost 1-0 at Dinamo Zagreb and drew 0-0 at home with Rijeka. That is one win, three draws and one defeat.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record is completely one-sided. The supplied data shows NK Maribor with four wins, HNK Gorica with zero wins and no draws in four previous meetings.

• Sep 5 2025: HNK Gorica 2-4 NK Maribor (Friendly Clubs)
• Dec 6 2020: NK Maribor 3-1 HNK Gorica (1st League)
• Oct 13 2018: NK Maribor 1-0 HNK Gorica (Friendly Clubs)
• Oct 13 2018: NK Maribor 1-0 HNK Gorica (Cup)

Across those four meetings, NK Maribor scored 9 goals and conceded 3. Total goals in the four matches averaged 3.0 per game.

Win Probability: NK Maribor or HNK Gorica?

Who will win? Based on the odds, form and head-to-head data, the calculated outcome percentages are:

• NK Maribor win: 55%
• Draw: 25%
• HNK Gorica win: 20%

The odds market prices NK Maribor as the favorite. Their last-five form is stronger than HNK Gorica’s, and the head-to-head record is four wins from four for NK Maribor. The home advantage for NK Maribor also supports the higher percentage. HNK Gorica have won only one of their last five matches, which lowers their win probability.

Conclusion: NK Maribor is the more likely winner. A draw is the second most likely outcome, and HNK Gorica is the outsider.

Odds & NK Maribor vs HNK Gorica Prediction

The selected 1X2 betting odds show NK Maribor at 1.91–1.96, the draw at 2.30–3.50, and HNK Gorica at 3.27–3.50. Bookmakers see NK Maribor as the clear favorite in this Friendly Clubs match. These odds imply a higher probability for a home win and lower chances for HNK Gorica.

Final prediction: Based on the stats, the best betting tips point to a NK Maribor win. The match outcome with the highest probability is a home win, but the draw at 25% should not be completely ignored for risk-averse bettors.