NK Radomlje - Mura prediction 27 October 2026

Our NK Radomlje vs Mura prediction for the October 27, 2026 1st League clash points towards a tight, competitive match at 16:00. Based on the latest form, head-to-head records, and league standings, Mura enters as the slight favorite with a 38% chance of winning, while NK Radomlje's struggles put them at a 31% probability. The draw is a strong possibility, calculated at 31%.

Team Form

NK Radomlje's recent form is a major concern. They are winless in their last five matches, a run that includes two high-scoring draws (2-2 at NK Bravo and 3-3 at home to Koper) and three straight defeats. The losses came against Brinje-Grosuplje (2-1), NK Maribor (0-3), and Nafta Lendava (3-1). Their defense has been leaking goals, conceding 11 in these five games, and their last league win came much earlier in the campaign.

Mura's form isn't inspiring but shows resilience. They've drawn four of their last five matches—0-0 at home against both Nafta Lendava and Celje, and 1-1 at NK Maribor, along with a high-scoring 3-3 at Olimpija Ljubljana. The glaring exception was a crushing 6-1 home defeat to Aluminij. While difficult to beat, a single win in five underscores their own consistency issues.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical head-to-head record between NK Radomlje and Mura is deadlocked, with 8 wins apiece and 8 draws. Recent meetings have favored NK Radomlje, who have won three of the last five encounters. This includes a convincing 3-1 home win in December 2025 and a 3-2 victory last May. Mura's only win in this recent stretch was a 2-0 home success in March 2026, with one match ending 0-0. The last visit to Radomlje saw the hosts run out 3-1 winners, a statistic that will give fans hope despite current form.

League Table Positions

Both teams are languishing near the foot of the 1st League table, separated by just four points. Mura sits 9th with 11 points from 12 matches, having managed only 2 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses with a goal difference of -11. NK Radomlje is bottom in 10th, holding 7 points from 11 games, a record of 1 win, 4 draws, and 6 defeats. Radomlje has played one fewer game, but a win here is essential to close the gap to their rivals.

Win Probability: NK Radomlje or Mura?

The win probability analysis indicates a balanced contest with a slight edge for the visitors. Mura has a 38% chance of winning, while NK Radomlje sits at 31%. The draw is also a very realistic outcome at 31%. This calculation starts from the inverse of the best available odds (home 3.13 = ~31.9%, draw 3.56 = ~28.1%, away 2.35 = ~42.6%) and normalizes the market to remove the bookmaker margin. Adjustments are then made: Mura’s away form (W1 D3 L2) is downgraded slightly due to a lack of wins, while Radomlje’s atrocious overall form, bottom-table position, and leaky defense significantly reduce their raw implied probability. The stalemate probability is raised, reflecting Mura’s five draws in six away games and Radomlje’s recent back-to-back draws.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds reflect the uncertainty, with market values fluctuating across different houses. The highest odds available are 3.13 for an NK Radomlje home win, 3.56 for a draw, and 2.88 for a Mura away victory. The betting tips sentiment tends to lean toward goals, given the 3-3 and 2-2 draws in Radomlje's recent matches. However, our prediction is a cautious one: based on the stats, Mura has a marginal edge in quality and form, but a score draw feels like the most probable match outcome.